Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
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Poultry
Chicken supply is constrained, with slaughter down 3.9% year over year and chick placements up just 0.7%, so supply growth into January will stay small.
Outlook: Expect flat, supply-limited chicken pricing through the rest of the month, with downside risk.
Beef
Beef production is down 5% year over year, with Q4 output forecast 3.8% lower, while cattle futures are at nine-week lows.
Outlook: Lean trim supply from cow and bull slaughter stays historically tight, which should limit further downside.
Pork
Pork output is up 2.5% week over week, and prices are at multi-year lows against 11-year lows in per capita consumption.
Outlook: Belly prices near a 13-year monthly low suggest it’s a good time to lock in contracts before the upside risk plays out.
Produce
Iceberg lettuce fell almost 20% as western crop transition gave faster relief, while Mexico’s harvest stoppage is pushing avocados higher.
Outlook: Lettuce should ease to about $20 through early 2027, and avocados have only upside unless farmers return soon.
Dairy
CME spot trading was thin, cheese and butter fell, and avian flu is trimming Northwest milk output, while U.S. dairy remains expensive on the export market.
Outlook: Near-term dairy risk is to the downside as price levels slow export demand.
Grains
Grains broke below technical support last week, with strong corn belt yields offsetting China export support for soybeans.
Outlook: Corn may find a floor near $4, while January soybeans could hold $11.50 if the USDA confirms strong yields.
Seafood
Fresh Atlantic salmon edged up 1% in August import data, a seasonally unusual gain, with prices up 8% from last year.
Outlook: A stronger December-April rally than last year’s is expected as prices start trending higher.
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Expert insights curated weekly
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