Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
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Poultry
Chicken production increased week over week but remained below year-earlier levels, while year-to-date output was still modestly higher. Producer margin pressure is prompting supply restraint despite strong consumption. Cut-level divergence persisted: breasts, tenders and wings weakened, while thighs and leg quarters strengthened; egg markets declined.
Outlook: Slowing production against robust demand raises eventual firming risk, although near-term price direction remains differentiated by cut.
Beef
Weekly beef production rebounded, but year-to-date output remained constrained by lower cattle slaughter. Boxed cutouts and domestic and imported trim softened, while ribs strengthened seasonally. New screwworm cases in New Mexico add uncertainty to the anticipated reopening of a cattle-import entry point.
Outlook: Improving supplies and range-bound consumption should moderate fall beef prices, with seasonal ribs and import-access risk remaining exceptions to monitor.
Pork
Pork production declined on both weekly and annual comparisons, yet the cutout reached a more-than-three-year low. Hams and ribs led declines; picnics edged higher. Restricted hog slaughter has not offset seasonal price weakness, and fourth-quarter production is projected to rise substantially from the prior quarter.
Outlook: Seasonally higher fourth-quarter output and lackluster consumption should maintain downward price pressure despite the constrained slaughter outlook.
Produce
Iceberg lettuce reached its highest level since the late-2022 rally as western supply issues persisted. Tomatoes continued rising, potatoes unexpectedly strengthened ahead of their anticipated post-harvest decline, and Hass avocados moved toward the commentary’s $20 floor target for 48-count product.
Outlook: Lettuce and tomatoes retain near-term upside risk, while potatoes should ease into year-end and avocados appear close to stabilization.
Dairy
Spot dairy markets mostly advanced, with record whey prices and cheese blocks at a one-year high; nonfat dry milk declined. Milk supply is improving seasonally, cheese availability is adequate to ample and butter supplies are stable. Earlier wholesale weakness remains central to the expected lagged adjustment in distributor cheddar.
Outlook: Distributor cheddar prices are expected to decline over the next several weeks, while elevated spot blocks also face near-term downside risk.
Grains
Corn held relatively steady within a weaker grain complex, testing the $4.80 level despite export sales reaching a five-week high of 1.122 million metric tons. The commentary sees tight global balances and potential demand response to the post-WASDE selloff, but technical support remains vulnerable.
Outlook: Failure to hold $4.80 could open a move toward $4.40, while stronger export demand may counter the downside.
Seafood
August import data showed a sharp increase in fresh yellowfin tuna prices after a prolonged below-normal period. Import volumes have begun easing, and the commentary identifies longer-term recovery potential. Monthly data and the source’s mixed species references warrant caution when interpreting the precise recovery sequence.
Outlook: Yellowfin prices are expected to ease somewhat through year-end before strengthening in January, with upside potential extending into 2027.
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Expert insights curated weekly
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