CommodityOne Weekly Report – Week of June 30, 2026

Poultry

Poultry production continues to run ahead of last year, up roughly 2.7% to 2.9% year to date, which is helping keep overall pricing in check. Tenderloins moved sharply lower, down about 7% week over week, and wing prices remain near decade lows for June. At the same time, breast and thigh inventories are tighter than the broader production picture would suggest.

Outlook: Poultry remains one of the more manageable protein categories today, but the disconnect between strong production and tighter inventories on key cuts could create a firmer market if processors pull back.

Beef

Beef fundamentals remain supportive of a high-price environment. Production is still running about 1.3% to 2.8% below prior-year levels, and the latest cattle placement data showed a decline of nearly 10%, reinforcing concerns about tighter supplies ahead. Even with some near-term stability from cattle on feed, the broader herd remains historically constrained.

Outlook: Expect beef markets to stay elevated, with any relief likely limited and short-lived as long-term supply fundamentals remain tight.

Pork

Pork continues to offer one of the clearest value stories in the protein space. Wholesale pork cutout values are tracking roughly 21% below the same period last year, while bellies are down as much as 32%. That said, the breeding herd remains at a 12-year low, which could eventually slow production growth.

Outlook: Pork still presents an attractive cost opportunity, but current pricing likely does not reflect the tighter longer-term supply picture.

Produce

Produce markets are generally quiet, but iceberg lettuce stands out as a key exception. The 24-count iceberg market has now risen for four consecutive weeks, including a recent increase of about 4.1% week over week, as supply constraints have prevented a normal seasonal reset.

Outlook: Lettuce is the produce item to watch near term, with elevated pricing likely to persist until supply conditions improve meaningfully.

Dairy

Dairy markets softened last week, creating some attractive near-term pricing. Cheese blocks and butter both reached 6-month lows, though butter inventories remain notably tight, running about 7% to 8% below year-ago levels. That contrast suggests weakness in price may not fully reflect underlying inventory risk.

Outlook: Dairy pricing looks favorable today, but tighter butter stocks could limit downside and reintroduce volatility later this summer.

Grains

The grain complex remains in a holding pattern ahead of the USDA’s June Acreage and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports. Current expectations call for corn acreage around 91.5 to 95 million acres and soybean acreage near 83.7 million, setting the stage for potentially meaningful price reactions once the data is released.

Outlook: Grain markets may stay quiet only briefly; upcoming USDA data could reset price direction quickly across feed and input-sensitive categories.

Seafood

Seafood continues to show meaningful species-level divergence. Frozen cod import prices are sitting at historic highs, roughly 31% above last year, while tilapia has experienced monthly swings of about 7% to 14% but remains more favorable compared with longer-term averages.

Outlook: Seafood buyers should expect continued uneven pricing across species, with flexibility likely to be a key advantage in managing exposure.