Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
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Poultry
Monthly USDA data confirmed tighter chicken availability, with September production down 1.3% year over year. Cut-level pricing remained mixed, while larger broiler and table-egg layer flocks indicate production capacity that is not yet translating uniformly into supply.
Outlook: Winter chicken price risk remains upward, while egg availability looks more favorable and expanded broiler capacity offers a later supply response.
Beef
Weekly beef output declined 4.2% year over year, and September feedlot placements dropped 12% to a multidecade monthly low. Mexican cattle imports are rebuilding, but weak pasture conditions remain an obstacle to meaningful herd expansion.
Outlook: Limited cattle availability should continue to support beef costs, with recovery dependent on sustained improvements in herd-rebuilding conditions.
Pork
Pork production rose 2.6% week over week and 0.6% year over year, while all primals declined at least 2%. The cutout fell nearly 13% over the month as weak consumption outweighed constrained hog availability.
Outlook: Demand weakness is likely to keep pork markets under pressure despite the limited underlying hog supply.
Produce
Iceberg lettuce continued a historically sharp rally amid western supply issues, and large Roma tomatoes climbed 20.6% to a 23-week high. Potato prices edged higher, with new-crop storage expected to provide some subsequent easing.
Outlook: Lettuce and tomatoes remain exposed to near-term price pressure, while potato relief should be gradual rather than a return to earlier lows.
Dairy
September milk output increased 2.6% year over year, supported by a larger herd and higher yields. Cheese still strengthened as competing milk uses restricted Class III availability, while robust exports and demand continued to support whey.
Outlook: Cheese prices face downside risk at current levels, but persistent demand should keep whey prices elevated.
Grains
Wheat led grain losses as reports of potential Black Sea shipping negotiations raised expectations for expanded global availability. Soybean oil was comparatively stable, while reports of larger U.S. winter wheat seedings added longer-term pressure.
Outlook: Wheat remains vulnerable to further declines if Black Sea trade improves, though the reported negotiations do not guarantee an agreement.
Seafood
Frozen tilapia fillet import prices declined 5% month over month, ending a two-month advance. Below-normal import volumes failed to support pricing, pointing to subdued U.S. demand as the dominant near-term influence.
Outlook: Tilapia pricing may remain soft near term, but the source anticipates a modest year-end recovery ahead of the stronger first-quarter seasonal window.
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Expert insights curated weekly
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