Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
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Poultry
Chicken supply stayed managed last week. Young bird slaughter declined 2% week over week and ran 2% below the same week last year. Production for the week ending September 26 improved nearly 4% from the prior week but trailed last year by 1.4%, and 2026 year-to-date weekly output is up just 1.4%. Monthly production data has been running ahead of the USDA’s weekly estimates. August chicken output was up a solid 3.3% year over year, on a similar gain in slaughter. Chick placements over the last six weeks are averaging roughly even with last year, which points to tempered production through at least the rest of October. Pricing moved lower anyway, with breasts, wings, and leg quarters all down. Table eggs were up slightly.
Outlook: The USDA projects Q4 chicken production 2.3% above 2025, and the industry broadly expects fall expansion to stay tempered. Seasonal patterns still point lower for breasts and tenders this month. Tenders have been lower in October than in September in 10 of the last 11 years.
Beef
Beef production recovered 13.2% from the prior week, when operational disruptions cut into slaughter, but remained 2.8% below the same week last year. Mexican cattle imports picked up late in the week to an estimated 7,000-plus head, the largest volume in well over a year. Pricing was mixed. Values found support early while slaughter worked to recover, then softened through the back half of the week. USDA Choice and Select boxed beef cutouts finished up less than 1%. Ribs and Select briskets led the gains, while flanks stayed weak and are down more than 7% over the past four weeks. In trim, beef 90s moved lower and the remaining trim markets were higher. The pickup in Mexican imports helps, but domestic cattle supplies still need to improve. Pasture conditions, which are critical to herd development, remain historically poor. Only 19% of pasture was rated good or excellent last week, the lowest for that week in more than 30 years.
Outlook: Fall beef production is expected to track roughly 3% below last year. The National Weather Service anticipates improving drought conditions across cattle country in the coming months, which could support much stronger herd expansion momentum early in the new year.
Pork
Pork production edged up 0.5% week over week but ran 2.3% below 2025, putting year-to-date weekly output 0.1% behind last year. Markets were mixed, and many are trading at historically low levels. The cutout declined 1.4%, with ribs, loins, and hams also lower. The major trim markets fell as well, with 42s at their lowest point since May. Seasonal history suggests more weakness ahead: 42 trim has averaged lower in October than in September in eight of the past nine years. Supplies have stayed limited this year even with heavier hog weights, and that should hold through the fall. Late last month, the USDA updated the March through May 2026 pig crop to 0.4% below the prior year, the smallest for that period since 2022. Those pigs come to market this fall, and the USDA expects Q4 pork output to be well under 1% above 2025.
Outlook: Tight supply and already-low pricing could limit seasonal downside in some pork markets over the coming weeks, bellies included. The USDA pork belly primal has averaged lower in December than in September in each of the last seven years.
Produce
Lettuce was again the only notable mover among the big five produce categories. The 24-count iceberg average rose another 30% week over week and is now nearly four times its level from the first week of August. Another week of similar gains would bring iceberg back to around $50, where late-year rallies typically end, so momentum could slow by mid-October. This year’s rally began a few weeks ahead of normal, though, so meaningful relief may not come until well into November. Tomatoes have upside through December but softened unexpectedly last week. That dip isn’t expected to last beyond another week or two. 48-count Hass avocados were essentially unchanged week over week.
Outlook: Lettuce relief may not come until well into November, and tomatoes still have room to climb before December. Avocados will hopefully hold steady through year-end.
Dairy
CME spot dairy trading thinned out on Friday, with only 14 loads changing hands. For the week, cheese blocks and butter declined while dry whey and nonfat dry milk stayed firm. The nonfat dry milk weekly average reached a 19-week high and sits within a dime of a multi-decade high, as constrained production keeps supplies limited. Domestic buyers are pulling back on purchases, but export demand remains solid. Domestic butter demand is solid, though export sales are running stronger. Cheese traded at its lowest level since 2020. Strong milk and cheese production has pressured the market, and inventories are historically large: U.S. cold storage cheese stocks at the end of August were 2.3% above last year, the largest in three years and the fourth largest on record.
Outlook: U.S. cheese is trading at its steepest discount to the E.U. since February, which should encourage exports. Further downside in cheese prices could be nominal.
Grains
Grains finished lower across the board last week. Corn and soybean meal posted the largest losses, while soybeans and soybean oil held closer to even. Corn’s decline came almost entirely on Wednesday afternoon, following the September 1 Quarterly Grain Stocks Report. Heading in, the trade expected corn stocks to land close to the 1.922 billion bushel 2025/26 carryout from the September WASDE. The report instead showed almost 2.1 billion bushels on and off farms as of September 1, well above even the highest trade estimate. The 2026/27 carry-in will be adjusted to reflect those findings. With export demand off to a slower start this year, the 173 million bushel increase could flow all the way through to the 2026/27 carryout.
Outlook: December corn fell back to its nearest technical support at $5. Without new export demand following the selloff, corn may have trouble holding that level this month.
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Seafood
Frozen Alaskan pollock filet dipped just 2% month over month in the July data and is still tracking cod closely. As with cod, the dip ended a four-month winning streak during which average pollock prices climbed nearly 33%. The pullback came even with import volumes still well below normal, which suggests some demand destruction in the U.S. That softer demand will need to continue for prices to move lower, since the pollock market typically doesn’t peak for the year until Q4. Last year broke the pattern, but from 2018 through 2024, pollock set its yearly high between October and December six times.
Outlook: Pollock will likely pick up seasonal support toward the end of 2026, so the best chance for a more meaningful downward correction probably won’t come until Q1 2027.
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