CommodityOne Weekly Report – Week of May 5, 2026

Poultry

Chicken supply continues to expand, with production up 3.3% year-over-year and year-to-date volumes tracking 2.9% ahead of 2025. That supply growth is pressuring most cuts, while wings remain at historically low levels and boneless skinless thighs continue to command a premium. Egg markets remain in a steep correction, dropping from $8.50/dozen at peak to ~$0.50, even as Q1 production increased 4.7% year-over-year.

Outlook: Chicken remains a supply-driven market with limited near-term upside risk outside of wings. Eggs present a more asymmetric setup—despite current pricing, incomplete flock recovery and demand normalization point to potential volatility ahead.

Beef

Beef production increased 1% week-over-week and is now just 1.8% below last year, with carcass weights up 3.4% offsetting a 5.2% decline in slaughter. Trim markets hit record weekly averages, while premium cuts like ribeyes are down 10.9% year-over-year, signaling continued demand shift.

Outlook: Fundamentals remain tight. Any near-term pullback in cattle or futures markets should be viewed as opportunistic, but longer-term pricing pressure persists as herd rebuilding remains gradual.

Pork

Pork production declined 0.9% week-over-week and 0.4% year-over-year, with hog slaughter down 1.2% y/y. Despite tighter supply, the USDA cutout fell more than 1%, led by weakness in bellies and hams. Belly pricing dropped 7% from March to April, reflecting typical seasonal softness.

Outlook: Seasonality remains the dominant factor. Historical trends show ~38% increases in belly pricing from May through August, suggesting current levels may represent a short-term trough.

Seafood

Snow crab prices declined 5.1% month-over-month in February and are down more than 15% over the past three months, erasing most of the late 2025 rally. Current pricing remains elevated at $9.06/lb. relative to historical norms.

Outlook: Seasonal patterns suggest potential for short-term increases during peak import periods, but recent inconsistency points to continued volatility rather than a sustained upward trend.

Produce

Produce markets remain elevated across key categories. Roma tomatoes have exceeded $40, iceberg lettuce has surpassed prior YTD highs, and yellow onions are at two-year highs, with red and white onions even stronger. Demand elasticity has not yet slowed pricing momentum.

Outlook: Supply-side relief is expected mid-May as regional production ramps, but near-term pricing risk remains elevated. Monitor Eastern U.S. and Mexico output as leading indicators of normalization.

Dairy

Butter prices declined and are now trading below cheese, a relationship not consistently observed since 2021. Market activity included 37 CME spot trades last week, with butter accounting for the majority. Global pricing is shifting, with EU cheese and skim milk powder rebounding, though SMP remains discounted to U.S. nonfat dry milk.

Outlook: Butter may be establishing a near-term floor supported by export demand, but strong milk production and weak domestic consumption are likely to cap upside, keeping pricing rangebound.

Grain

Grain markets posted modest gains, with soybeans moving slightly higher after extended sideways activity. The move appears driven by soybean oil strength, despite a growing divergence between the two and limited new biofuel policy developments.

Outlook: Market confidence in the rally is low. Without new catalysts, price movement is likely to remain headline-driven and susceptible to reversal.