CommodityOne Weekly Report – Week of May 12, 2026

Poultry

Chicken markets continue facing heavy supply-side pressure as production growth outpaces seasonal demand trends. Young bird slaughter increased 2.1% year-over-year last week, contributing to additional declines in breast meat and wing pricing, while thighs and tenders remained comparatively firm. Egg markets also continued correcting sharply, with wholesale large egg pricing dropping below $0.50/dozen. Strong quarterly earnings from major poultry producers continue reinforcing expectations for expanded production capacity through the second half of 2026, suggesting the USDA may still be underestimating Q3 and Q4 supply potential.

Outlook:
Supply expansion should continue limiting upside risk across most chicken categories near term, though dark meat and turkey breast markets may remain structurally firmer than breasts and wings. Operators should continue monitoring production growth closely as seasonal demand accelerates into summer.

Beef

Beef markets remain fundamentally tight as lower cattle availability continues constraining production. Last week, total beef output fell 3% year-over-year, while year-to-date production is now down 6.9% with cattle slaughter trailing last year by 9.4%. Despite softer production levels, grilling demand pushed loin, rib, and flank pricing higher again, with Choice cutouts now averaging 12.8% above 2025 levels and Select up 17%. Beef trim markets also established new record-high weekly averages. Import activity remains historically elevated, with March beef imports rising 19% year-over-year to a record monthly high while exports dropped 20%, shifting the U.S. into a record net importer position by nearly 300 million pounds.

Outlook:
Beef markets are likely to remain highly volatile through grilling season. Imported lean beef should continue supporting hamburger supply chains, but premium muscle cuts and trim categories may remain elevated until domestic herd rebuilding improves production capacity.

Pork

Pork production improved modestly last week, rising 2.2% year-over-year, while year-to-date output remains generally flat despite slightly lower slaughter rates. The sharpest movement came from pork bellies, which collapsed lower and now sit nearly 14% below last year’s pricing levels. Meanwhile, ribs and butts posted strong weekly gains as grilling demand strengthened. USDA projections continue signaling a relatively modest seasonal Q2 production decline compared to historical averages, which could temper the typical spring and summer pork rally.

Outlook:
Pork markets should still experience seasonal strength through Q2 and early summer, though elevated production levels may limit the magnitude of price increases versus prior years. Belly markets may present strategic purchasing opportunities if current discounts persist.

Produce

Produce volatility remained concentrated in lettuce, onions, and tomatoes last week. Onion pricing showed early signs of peaking as supplies begin improving and demand softens. Iceberg lettuce remains elevated with limited supply relief expected until later in the month, while tomato prices continued climbing despite improving supply conditions beginning to emerge.

Outlook:
Produce markets may begin stabilizing later in May, though weather and regional supply transitions will continue creating volatility risks across key fresh categories in the near term.

Dairy

Dairy markets softened modestly last week, led by butter, while nonfat dry milk continued moving higher despite weakening export demand signals. March nonfat dry milk exports fell nearly 8% year-over-year and posted their weakest March shipment volume since 2017. Domestic pricing premiums versus export markets also reached record highs during the month, suggesting export demand could continue softening as elevated U.S. pricing reduces global competitiveness.

Outlook:
Nonfat dry milk markets may face increasing downside pressure if export demand weakens further into summer. Broader dairy markets remain relatively balanced for now, though pricing volatility risks remain elevated.

Grains

Corn, soybean, and wheat markets all moved sharply lower last week, reversing much of the prior rally as geopolitical fertilizer concerns eased. Wheat markets declined despite ongoing concerns surrounding lower yields and elevated abandonment across Kansas hard red winter wheat regions. Market participants now appear focused on this week’s Kansas Wheat Tour and whether crop damage has already been sufficiently priced into futures markets.

Outlook: Grain markets remain highly reactive to both geopolitical developments and crop condition updates. Wheat could quickly regain upward momentum if crop tour data confirms further production deterioration.

Seafood

Frozen cod pricing surged again in March, with average import values jumping 24% month-over-month and surpassing previous all-time highs. Tight import volumes have kept cod markets historically elevated since mid-2024, though seasonal volume improvements are expected beginning in May. Current pricing trends suggest supply constraints remain the primary driver behind continued volatility.

Outlook:
Cod pricing may remain elevated near term, but improving import flows through late spring and summer could help support gradual normalization across seafood markets during the second half of 2026.