CommodityOne Weekly Report – Week of July 29, 2026

Poultry

Chicken production continued to strengthen last week, with slaughter volumes increasing 0.5% week over week and output running nearly 2% above last year. Heavier bird weights continue to support production, while pricing was mixed across the complex, with wings and leg quarters moving higher and breasts and tenderloins remaining flat. However, producer margins have fallen to three-year lows, creating uncertainty around the sustainability of current production levels.

Outlook: Poultry markets remain well supplied in the near term, but declining producer profitability bears watching as a potential catalyst for tighter supply and firmer pricing later this year.

Beef

Beef production improved modestly last week but remains constrained by historically tight cattle inventories, with year-to-date output down 5.8% versus last year. Wholesale beef values softened across most major cuts, while retail beef prices climbed to their second-highest level on record, underscoring the ongoing disconnect between supply fundamentals and consumer pricing.

Outlook: Tight cattle supplies will likely continue supporting elevated beef pricing, keeping procurement strategies and demand management in focus through the remainder of the year.

Pork

Pork production declined slightly last week, although year-to-date output remains modestly above last year due to heavier hog weights. Market performance continues to vary by cut, with stronger belly and ham markets supporting bacon pricing while pork trim weakness has begun easing pressure on processed products. ArrowStream Central pricing also continues to show bacon tracking below 2025 contract levels.

Outlook: Improving trim fundamentals could create broader pricing relief across value-added pork products, while fresh pork markets are expected to remain relatively balanced.

Produce

Produce markets remained relatively stable despite continued attention surrounding the cyclospora outbreak associated with lettuce from Central Mexico. To date, the outbreak has had minimal pricing impact, while iceberg lettuce appears to be stabilizing after earlier losses. Avocados posted modest gains, and onion markets continue following expected seasonal trends with limited supply concerns.

Outlook: Produce markets remain fundamentally stable, although seasonal demand and localized supply disruptions could drive modest price increases through August.

Dairy

Cheese markets continued strengthening, with block cheese prices now nearly 16% higher over the past month, while butter, dry whey, and nonfat dry milk all declined. Revised USDA milk production data continues to support expectations for herd expansion, helping maintain adequate milk availability despite recent strength in cheese markets.

Outlook: Milk supply growth should help limit significant upside risk, though cheese markets are likely to remain firm in the near term.

Grains

Grain markets posted broad gains last week as higher crude oil prices and geopolitical developments fueled renewed buying activity. Wheat led the move higher following disruptions to Russian export logistics and continued uncertainty surrounding Black Sea shipping, increasing volatility across global grain markets.

Outlook: Grain markets are expected to remain highly sensitive to geopolitical developments, with export disruptions continuing to influence price direction.

Seafood

Shrimp prices continued their downward trend, with the May import average falling to $3.65 per pound, the lowest monthly level since September 2024. Improved import volumes have increased supply and pressured prices lower, although seasonal demand patterns suggest the current buying opportunity may be temporary.

Outlook: Shrimp pricing is expected to remain favorable through late summer before seasonal demand supports a gradual recovery heading into the fourth quarter.