CommodityOne Weekly Report – Week of August 6, 2026

Poultry

Chicken production for the week ending July 25th ran 3.1% above 2025 levels, though slaughter edged down slightly week-over-week. Chicken markets were generally soft, led by a >6% drop in leg quarters, while bone-in thighs gained and table eggs hit their highest price since March. Squeezed producer margins (highlighted by Pilgrim’s Pride reporting its lowest Q2 operating margin since Q1 2023) are prompting suppliers to tap the brakes, with chick placements now tracking just 1% above last year compared to a 2.8% YTD slaughter increase.

Outlook: Downside price risk across chicken markets is expected to be modest in the near term as narrowing chick placements signal tighter production growth ahead.

Beef

Weekly beef production fell 3% week-over-week (-2.5% YoY), pulling year-to-date output down 5.7% from 2025 on an 8.2% drop in total cattle slaughter. USDA Choice cutouts reached an eight-month low, though loins, rounds, flanks, and plates continue trading below 2025 levels. While total cattle inventory edged up 0.2% YoY due to dairy expansion and longer feedlot stays, the beef cow inventory dropped 0.7% and the calf crop fell 1.6%, offset slightly by a 2.7% increase in replacement heifers.

Outlook: Tight beef supplies and elevated raw material costs will persist for the foreseeable future despite early signals that long-term herd rebuilding may be near an inflection point.

Pork

Year-to-date pork production is up 0.6% over 2025, driven entirely by heavier hog weights rather than slaughter gains. The USDA cutout dropped 1.7% last week due to a >9% slump in hams, though pork bellies hit a four-month high in a typical late-summer rally. However, underlying belly fundamentals lean bearish: end-of-June belly inventories were up 18.4% YoY, featuring the second-smallest May-to-June inventory drawdown in over 15 years and the largest YTD inventory build in over a decade.

Outlook: Pork belly prices face limited additional upside as the seasonal demand peak concludes and heavy cold storage inventories weigh on the market heading into autumn.

Produce

48-count Hass avocados provided the primary market highlight, rising 12.6% week-over-week in their third straight week of gains, a standard August seasonal bounce rather than a supply shortage. Meanwhile, 24-count iceberg lettuce fell 8.3% week-over-week, extending a five-week losing streak, though price declines are slowing and expected to floor before dipping below $10.

Outlook: Produce markets should remain relatively calm near-term, with avocado prices topping out near $60/carton before September seasonal declines set in, and iceberg lettuce stabilizing ahead of typical autumn market rallies.

Dairy

CME spot trading closed active with 39 loads; most markets ended lower except nonfat dry milk, which gained nearly $0.05/lb. Butter led price drops (now tracking 42% below last year), and cheese blocks fell nearly a dime to their lowest weekly average since mid-January. Despite a historically large June milk cow herd and a 2.8% YoY increase in replacement heifers, cream supplies remain tight for butter manufacturing while export demand for domestic cheese stays robust.

Outlook: Near-term downside price risk for butter and cheese appears minimal due to restricted cream availability and sustained export demand.

Grains

Grain markets turned lower across the board last week, giving back a significant portion of July’s gains. Wheat showed the most resilience due to ongoing Black Sea shipping disruptions. With no immediate resolution in sight as Russia and Ukraine enter their peak August export window, the pullback in wheat futures may prove short-lived if commercial shipping risks persist.

Outlook: Wheat prices carry substantial upside risk if ongoing Black Sea shipping threats escalate during the peak August export window.

Seafood

May import seafood data was mostly stable, with frozen tilapia fillets remaining the notable exception after dropping 17.5% month-over-month. This marked tilapia’s seventh consecutive month with a >5% price swing, following a 15% surge in April ($1.59/lb six-year seasonal low). While tilapia prices historically peak in spring and retreat in May, the steepness of the drop was sharper than expected.

Outlook: Tilapia prices may see modest counter-seasonal strength in the second half of the year following an unusually sharp May market correction.