CommodityOne Weekly Report – Week of August 12, 2026

Poultry

Young chicken slaughter rose slightly last week and finished 0.5% above a year ago, while production for the week ending August 1 came in 0.3% below last year due to 0.8% lighter bird weights. Year-to-date production is 2.5% above 2025 levels, in line with the USDA’s ~2.5% Q3 growth forecast. Markets were soft overall, with nearly every category finishing lower except wings, which held firm. Pilgrim’s Pride reported its worst quarterly results in over three years, while Tyson posted its best fiscal Q3 chicken operating income margin in more than three years.

Outlook: Chicken markets are likely to remain soft in the near term, though Tyson’s stronger results help ease immediate concerns about supply growth.

Beef

Beef output fell 0.5% last week and was 2.7% below a year ago, with year-to-date production now 5.6% lower amid an 8.1% drop in cattle slaughter. The U.S. will resume cattle imports from Mexico later this month (phased process), but meaningful supply impact is unlikely before Q2 2027. Both USDA Choice and Select boxed beef cutouts rose last week with primals firm. The July Cattle on Feed report showed inventory 2.2% above last year, with June placements the smallest for any June in 17 years.

Outlook: Cattle supplies will remain tight, supporting prices, though beef output could still finish modestly above 2025 levels this summer.

Pork

Pork production edged 0.3% higher week-over-week but was 0.9% below the prior year; year-to-date output is 0.5% above 2025 levels, supported by heavier hog weights despite a 0.6% smaller slaughter. Cash hog prices were soft and tracked below year-ago levels, with nearby futures posting their lowest weekly close in nearly nine months. The USDA pork cutout declined again, driven by a 12% drop in ham prices, though pork bellies reached multi-month highs.

Outlook: The USDA pork cutout has historically strengthened in August (higher than July in six of the last eight years), though butts, ribs, and hams are expected to follow a softer seasonal trend.

Produce

The big-five produce items stayed largely quiet last week. Hass avocados (48-count) flatlined after three prior weeks of gains, while onions appear to have capped following a longer uptrend. Both 24-count iceberg lettuce and 25 lb. large roma tomatoes eased to new year-to-date lows, with iceberg extending its six-week losing streak and dropping below $10/carton for the first time since 2023.

Outlook: Avocado prices could see a short-lived August pickup before fading, while iceberg lettuce is expected to remain near historic lows and largely flatline over the next month.

Dairy

CME spot dairy trade pulled back on Friday after a robust Thursday session (28 loads traded). Both cheese and butter continue to track well below year-ago levels. Milk production is seasonally light but steady, with domestic cheese demand in line with output and export demand mixed. Butter supplies appear tighter amid improved sales.

Outlook: Seasonal tightening in August is likely to provide some support to cheese (blocks have averaged higher versus July in nine of the last 11 years), with butter also showing a recent bullish August tendency.

Grains

Most grain markets remained under pressure but found technical support last week. December soybean oil snapped a six-day losing streak after hitting its 100-day moving average and followed that support higher. Soybeans leveled off somewhat but face potential pressure from heavy rainfall expected in the eastern Corn Belt. Frequent Chinese purchases remain a key supportive factor.

Outlook: Grains will stay sensitive to crude oil prices and the pace of Chinese soybean purchases; a deal reopening the Strait of Hormuz could pressure soybean oil lower, while sales must accelerate for China to meet the 25 MMT target.

Seafood

Fresh yellowfin tuna import prices continued to track closely with year-ago levels. Tilapia prices faced pressure from import volumes trending well above normal over the past two months (similar pattern seen late in 2025), despite expectations of better performance after the March jump.

Outlook: Tilapia imports should fade through November, supporting a moderate price recovery in the back half of the year, though any yellowfin bounce is expected to fall well short of recovering the sharp losses seen in the USDA’s 38-year price history.