CommodityOne Weekly Report – Week of April 21, 2026

Poultry

Chicken production declined 1.4% week over week but remains 1.1% above last year, with year-to-date output up 2.9% vs. 2025. Markets were balanced, with breasts and wings softening while thighs and tenders held steady. Turkey breast weakened, and egg markets remain favorable for buyers.

Outlook: Forward indicators matter most here. Broiler egg sets are trending ~2% above last year, signaling stronger Q3 production than USDA’s current +0.5% forecast. If realized, this points to continued supply-driven price stability, with limited upside risk outside of wings.

Beef

Beef production increased just 0.2% week over week and remains down 8.6% year over year, with cattle slaughter now 10.2% below 2025 levels. Despite slight declines in boxed beef cutouts, pricing remains elevated due to tight cattle supply.

Outlook: Pipeline constraints remain the defining factor. March placements dropped 7.3% year over year, reinforcing limited future supply. Expect continued elevated pricing and controlled production levels, with minimal short-term relief across the beef complex.

Pork

Production rose 1.1% week over week and is 6.3% above last year, keeping supply ample. Pricing was mixed, with bellies declining to seasonal lows while hams and ribs strengthened, including 13%+ gains in key ham categories.

Outlook: Current belly pricing reflects near-term oversupply, but seasonal demand patterns suggest upward movement into summer. The data supports a likely inflection point, creating a window for strategic sourcing and forward coverage.

Seafood

Yellowfin tuna declined 10.7% month over month in February, following a 26% increase in January, and is now sitting near a five-year seasonal low.

Outlook: Pricing appears to be stabilizing rather than continuing its typical seasonal decline. Expect relatively flat movement in the near term, with the next potential upward shift unlikely before early summer.

Produce

Produce markets were relatively stable, though key items remain elevated. Roma tomatoes are holding near $40/carton, limiting demand, while iceberg lettuce increased 23% week over week off its floor. Onion markets pushed to new year-to-date highs.

Outlook: Supply recovery timelines will drive direction. Tomato pricing is dependent on improved yields from Mexico and the Eastern U.S., while lettuce is expected to remain within a $10–$20 range. Onion strength may persist near term but lacks consistency across all varieties.

Dairy

CME activity included 32 trades, with cheese blocks up slightly (<1¢), butter down nearly 5¢, and whey and nonfat dry milk trending higher. Nonfat dry milk has now increased 71% year-to-date, outpacing other dairy components.

Outlook: Shifting milk utilization is the key variable. Continued strength in nonfat dry milk could reduce milk availability for cheese production, supporting pricing. However, declining European dairy prices may pressure U.S. exports and limit upside.

Grain

Wheat markets rallied as drought conditions worsened across key growing regions. Crop ratings declined to 34% good-to-excellent, with severe drought increasing to 36% and extreme drought to 11%.

Outlook: Weather remains the primary driver. With no meaningful precipitation in the forecast, wheat markets retain upward potential. This introduces broader cost risk across grain-linked categories, particularly feed-intensive proteins.