CommodityOne Weekly Report – Week of April 14, 2026

Poultry

Chicken production increased last week, with young bird slaughter up ~2% week over week and 1.4% year over year. Despite this, pricing continues to move higher, with most items up 2–5% and breasts and tenders up ~20% over the past four weeks. The USDA also raised its 2026 production forecast, with Q2 output expected to increase 2.7% year over year. Eggs fell to historic lows, with downside now limited.

Outcome: Near-term pricing pressure remains elevated, but accelerating production signals potential stabilization ahead. Watch for timing gaps between supply increases and price correction.

Beef

Beef production declined 4% week over week and 6.5% year over year, with cattle slaughter down 9.2% year over year. Boxed beef cutouts fell nearly 2% last week, though overall supply remains tight. Imports are up ~18% year over year, primarily lean product, limiting impact on higher-grade cuts.

Outcome: Tight domestic supply continues to support elevated pricing despite short-term softness. Imported volume may relieve lean trim pressure, but not center-of-plate costs.

Pork

Pork output rose 3.1% week over week and 0.3% year over year. The USDA pork cutout increased ~1% week over week but remains ~2% below last year. Ham prices jumped nearly 9%, while bellies held steady. Pork trim remains historically elevated due to substitution demand from tight beef supply.

Outcome: Stable overall supply is keeping a lid on pricing, but category-level volatility persists. Substitution demand will continue to influence trim and rib markets.

Seafood

Frozen Atlantic salmon prices declined 2.2% from January to February—marking the first seasonal drop in 14 years. This runs counter to typical patterns, where prices rise heading into spring demand.

Outcome: Atypical pricing behavior suggests ongoing market correction. Monitor for a rebound ahead of peak seasonal demand, but near-term buying conditions remain favorable.

Produce

Tomato pricing held flat week over week for the first time in over a month, signaling early stabilization, though volatility is expected to continue through April. Avocados (48ct) increased ~15% week over week due to temporary supply disruption tied to Mexico’s Holy Week. Broccoli snapped a six-week decline with a seasonal uptick.

Outcome: Short-term supply disruptions are driving price swings. Expect normalization in avocados and continued volatility in tomatoes through month-end.

Dairy

Dairy markets were mixed last week. Butter and cheese declined modestly (down $0.01–$0.04/lb), while nonfat dry milk increased nearly $0.09/lb to a 12-year high. Milk production is seasonally increasing, supporting supply, though elevated NFDM pricing may influence product allocation.

Outcome: Diverging price movements signal shifting milk utilization. Watch for potential downstream impacts on cheese availability despite overall supply strength.

Grain

Grain markets moved lower last week, driven by improved weather conditions. U.S. corn drought exposure dropped from 44% to 29% week over week, with significant improvement in the eastern Corn Belt. Corn prices fell below $4.50, with limited technical support in the near term.

Outcome: Improved growing conditions are easing upstream pressure. Continued downside risk in corn could support cost stabilization across feed-dependent categories.