Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
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Poultry
Chicken harvest increased nearly 4% w/w and 3% y/y, with boneless/skinless breasts jumping $0.14 to $2.05/lb and tenderloins rising $0.04 to $1.77/lb. Meanwhile, chicken wings continued their sharp decline, down $0.14 to $1.64/lb. The USDA’s large eggshell index plummeted 12% w/w as shell egg demand weakened due to stable HPAI conditions. Retaliatory tariffs from China, Canada, and Mexico may help lower domestic chicken part prices.
Beef
The cattle market saw a nearly 3% increase, with beef demand strengthening ahead of the grilling season. Boneless ribeyes jumped 9% to $11.05/lb, while ground beef 81% fell 5% to $2.65/lb. End cuts showed mixed movement, but strong fundamentals suggest beef prices will remain resilient despite trade-related volatility affecting other proteins.
Pork
Hog futures and cash lean hogs were slightly lower, with the pork market facing uncertainty from new tariffs. The ham primal surged 10% to $91.54/cwt, while bellies dropped 6% to $144.72/cwt. The market remains volatile, and Mexico’s retaliatory tariffs on U.S. pork could lead to price instability in the coming weeks.
Seafood
Atlantic salmon prices surged another 4.1% m/m to a record $6.44/lb, continuing a steep post-COVID price climb. The current trend suggests a peak between April and May before a potential seasonal decline into the fall.
Produce
Produce markets were mostly flat, with no major supply disruptions on the horizon. Avocado prices remain high, with potential tariff impacts looming in April. Iceberg lettuce ticked up slightly but remains stable, while roma tomatoes have held steady for six weeks.
Dairy
Dairy prices rebounded after three weeks of decline, driven by increased retail promotions. Butter rose $0.04 to $2.34/lb, while cheese prices climbed, with blocks up 7% to $1.76/lb and barrels up 4% to $1.73/lb. Milk volumes remain high, with steady domestic demand and mixed international interest.
Grain
Wheat markets rebounded, fueled by export demand and drought concerns in U.S. hard red winter wheat regions. Corn and soybeans remain stagnant, with potential price movement hinging on upcoming export sales data.
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