Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
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Poultry
Chicken prices edged higher last week, though breast meat, tenders and wings remain attractively priced. Tenders stand out at 21% below year-ago levels, while whole bird prices moved lower. Weekly chicken production fell 2% and remained 1.7% below last year as producers continue to limit chick placements despite larger breeding inventories. Table egg and turkey breast markets were largely steady.
Outlook: Reduced chick placements should support chicken prices through the fall and into winter, potentially narrowing current buying opportunities.
Beef
Beef production declined 3.3% week over week and 3.4% year over year, but boxed beef prices still softened amid uneven demand. Briskets, loins and rounds led the declines, while chucks and select flanks moved higher. Trim markets were mixed, with fattier trim gaining and leaner trim easing. Record August beef imports added supply, helping offset tighter domestic production.
Outlook: Beef trim prices should remain soft this fall, supported by strong imports and seasonal weakness in lean trim.
Pork
Higher weekly pork production pressured prices, with the cutout and every primal moving lower. Major markets remain below year-ago levels, some by nearly 30%, creating attractive purchasing conditions. Demand remains the challenge: domestic consumption is sluggish, and August exports fell 4% year over year to their lowest level for the month in four years. Bellies bear watching for a potential longer-term price bottom.
Outlook: Favorable pork pricing should persist through the fall, although bellies could begin establishing a longer-term floor.
Produce
Lettuce remains the primary cost pressure, with 24-count iceberg up 374% over eight consecutive weeks and approaching $50 per carton. Seasonal timing suggests relief may still be several weeks away. Roma tomatoes are also trending higher, with potential to approach $30 before late November. Meanwhile, 48-count Hass avocados resumed their decline after briefly stabilizing around $30 per carton.
Outlook: Lettuce and tomato prices retain near-term upside risk, while avocados should remain comparatively favorable ahead of their typical early-year seasonal increase.
Dairy
Cheese blocks, nonfat dry milk and whey moved higher last week, with whey reaching record highs. Adequate milk supplies continue to support ample cheese and butter production, and cheese inventories remain heavy. August cheese exports reached a monthly record, rising 9% year over year, but flat domestic consumption continues to limit the market’s momentum.
Outlook: Ample supply and lackluster domestic demand should limit cheese price upside this fall, even as whey remains elevated.
Grains
Grain markets declined last week as the USDA’s October reports reinforced a heavier supply outlook, particularly for corn. A higher yield estimate and increased beginning stocks outweighed upward revisions to projected demand. Corn’s stocks-to-use ratio rose to 11.3% from 9.7% in September, leaving the market more comfortably supplied and increasingly dependent on stronger export activity.
Outlook: Grain prices remain under pressure, with additional downside risk for corn if export sales fail to meet USDA expectations.
Seafood
Frozen Alaskan pollock fillet prices jumped 14.2% in August, sharply outpacing the 3.8% increase in frozen cod fillets. Below-normal import volumes for a third consecutive month have tightened U.S. availability. Pollock also carries seasonal upside risk: prices have reached their annual high in the fourth quarter in six of the past eight years.
Outlook: Tight supplies and seasonal pricing patterns point to further pollock price risk through year-end, with meaningful relief potentially delayed until well into 2027.
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Expert insights curated weekly
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