Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
This snapshot report is released every week. To learn more about the FULL report, click here.
Designed to support purchasing and forecasting teams in managing price risks, CommodityONE provides powerful tools like commodity forecasting and item-specific food cost modeling to help you plan smarter and maximize profitability. Learn how you can receive even more in-depth insights delivered daily from CommodityONE to elevate your strategy.
Expert insights curated weekly
Powered by CommodityONE
Poultry
Chicken fundamentals were mixed last week. Young bird slaughter improved 2.5% week over week, but remained 1% below last year, and for the week ending September 19, total chicken production was 6% lower year over year. Even with that recent slowdown, year-to-date output is still up 1.6% versus 2025. Pricing was mostly steady, although boneless skinless thighs rose more than 3% and continue to carry unusually strong premiums versus breasts and tenders. Broiler margins remain pressured by low chicken prices and higher feed costs, and recent chick placement and broiler egg set data suggest producers are slowing expansion, even though the September 1 broiler layer inventory was up 2% from last year.
Outlook: Expect any normal seasonal softening in chicken to be limited, with breasts, tenders, and wings likely holding firmer than usual in the near term.
Beef
Beef availability tightened sharply last week, with production down 8.4% from the prior week and 12.5% below last year, largely due to disruptions at Kansas processing plants representing roughly 20% of slaughter capacity. On the demand side, both USDA Choice and Select boxed beef cutouts moved higher and are now roughly in line with year-ago levels. Longer term, the supply picture remains constrained: the September 1 cattle-on-feed inventory was up just 0.8% year over year, while August cattle placements fell 9.2%, marking the smallest August placement level in at least 30 years. Imports from Mexico are beginning to recover, with the Santa Teresa port reopened and volumes potentially reaching 40% of normal by the end of October, though the near-term lift is still limited.
Outlook: Beef markets should remain fundamentally tight, with only gradual supply relief expected, so buyers should plan for continued firm pricing.
Pork
Pork production increased 3% week over week and was essentially flat with last year at +0.1%, although year-to-date output is still down 0.1%. The USDA pork cutout dropped to its lowest level in more than two years, driven by lower prices on picnics, ribs, loins, and butts, while bellies and hams were the main exceptions. Bellies remain historically cheap for September, and pork trim was flat to slightly higher but still running nearly 30% below last year. Importantly, the latest Hog and Pigs report confirmed a tighter supply setup, with the September 1 total herd down 1.5%, the breeding herd down 1.5%, sows farrowing down 2.7%, and the pig crop down 1.5% versus last year.
Outlook: Limited hog supplies should help put a floor under pork markets this fall and keep further downside relatively contained.
Produce
Produce was mostly quiet last week outside of lettuce. The 24-count iceberg lettuce average surged 34.2% week over week to a 12-week high, signaling that the typical late-year rally may be starting earlier than normal. Tomatoes were flat on the week, but the market still looks vulnerable to upside, with 25 lb. large romas potentially reaching $30 per carton by late November. Avocados were steadier, with 48-count Hass prices posting a slight rebound after six consecutive weekly declines and moving back into the more typical $20-30 per carton range.
Outlook: Expect the most near-term inflation risk in produce to center on lettuce and tomatoes, while avocados should remain relatively flat through at least early winter.
Dairy
Dairy markets were mostly firmer last week despite light spot activity, with only cheese blocks moving lower to their cheapest level in more than nine months. Nonfat dry milk climbed to its highest price since late May, and butter fundamentals improved as supplies tightened under stronger domestic and export demand. On the supply side, milk production remains ample: August milk output rose 1.7% year over year, setting a record for the month, and the milk cow herd was also up 1.7% from last year, reaching its largest level in more than three decades. Still, production efficiency was less impressive, as milk per cow was flat to 2025 and only 0.7% above August 2024, suggesting rising feed costs may be starting to weigh on yields.
Outlook: Cheese downside appears limited from here, while butter and milk powder markets may stay better supported if feed costs continue to pressure production efficiency.
Grains
Grain markets were broadly weaker last week, with soybean meal the only major contract finishing higher week over week. Wheat led the decline as geopolitical headlines shifted market sentiment, particularly after renewed discussion around reopening trade flows through the Black Sea. December Chicago wheat broke below a key technical level near $7.00, which added downside momentum. At the same time, U.S. wheat export demand has not yet shown a meaningful pickup from Black Sea disruptions, limiting the bullish case for now.
Outlook: Grain costs, especially wheat, look biased lower to sideways near term unless Black Sea supply risks escalate again.
Seafood
Frozen cod filet was the main seafood mover in the latest data, falling 5.3% month over month in July and ending a four-month rally that had driven prices up nearly 52% and to repeated all-time highs. Even with that correction, the broader market remains tight because import volumes have been running below normal since last September. The July pullback may be an early sign that elevated pricing is finally slowing demand, but supply remains restricted enough that values are still well above normal seasonal levels.
Outlook: Cod prices may continue easing off peak levels, but the category is still likely to stay elevated through year-end and into early 2027.
Want the full report in your inbox everyday?
Submit the short form to learn how to get the FULL CommodityONE report delivered DAILY to your inbox:
CommodityONE offers a diversity in format and provides definitive content that presents the trends and forecasts that align with what’s happening in the industry. Sign up for CommodityONE today to unlock the most in-depth foodservice commodities report on the market.
Expert insights curated weekly
Powered by CommodityONE