Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
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Poultry
Chicken supplies remain tight as producers continue to keep output in check. Young bird slaughter was 4% below the same week last year, and while year-to-date production is still up 1.7%, forward-looking indicators are modest, with broiler egg sets up just 0.4% and chick placements up 0.5%. Even with tighter supply, demand remains very strong: U.S. per-capita chicken consumption is estimated at 106.8 lbs, up 3.8% from 2025 and a record high, helped by retail prices near two-year lows and chicken’s growing value advantage versus beef.
Outlook: Chicken markets should stay well supported near term as restrained production and strong consumer demand continue to outweigh only modest supply growth.
Beef
Beef production remains under pressure, with last week’s output down 4.5% year over year on a 5.4% decline in cattle slaughter. Feedlot placements in August were down 9% from 2025 and marked the smallest August total in 30 years, reinforcing the broader tight-supply story, even as cattle imports from Mexico rise. At the same time, trim markets weakened sharply, and while USDA projects 2026 beef production down 4.3% from last year, Q4 beef supplies are expected to increase by 295 million pounds from Q3, the largest seasonal jump in more than a decade.
Outlook: Beef pricing could face some seasonal pressure into Q4 as supplies improve from Q3 levels, though the longer-term supply backdrop still points to a relatively tight market.
Pork
Pork output last week fell 4.8% from a year ago, driven largely by a 3.9% drop in hog slaughter, yet pricing still moved lower across much of the complex. The biggest weakness came in bellies, which dropped 25% in one week and are now down 46% year over year, while the USDA pork cutout slipped to its lowest level since February 2024. Looking ahead, the upcoming Hog and Pigs report is expected to show a smaller herd, and USDA had already forecast sow farrowings down nearly 2%, which suggests tighter supply later on.
Outlook: Pork may remain under pressure in the short term due to soft demand, but tighter herd fundamentals could offer support as the market moves into 2027.
Produce
Produce pricing was relatively steady overall, with no major surprises in the key items tracked. 48-count Hass avocados continued to ease toward their current year-to-date low and are expected to find support before falling below $20/carton. Meanwhile, 24-count iceberg lettuce continued to move higher, and 25-lb. large Roma tomatoes also have upside into November, though Romas are more likely to peak around $30 versus the $40+ levels seen from March through May.
Outlook: Produce markets look mostly manageable near term, with the most upside risk centered on lettuce and tomatoes heading into late fall.
Dairy
Dairy trading was active, with 49 loads changing hands on Friday’s CME spot session, but the weekly trend was mixed to weaker. Cheese blocks, barrels, and butter were lower, while nonfat dry milk and dry whey held steady; ample cream availability continues to support butter production, and lower U.S. butter pricing could help exports. Still, rising feed costs and weaker cheese and butter prices are squeezing producer margins, raising concerns that herd reductions could tighten milk supply later this fall.
Outlook: Dairy markets may stay rangebound in the near term, but margin pressure at the farm level could create tighter supply and firmer pricing later if herd liquidation picks up.
Grains
Grains were fairly quiet overall, aside from soybean meal strength. December corn has settled into a $5.20 to $5.40 range after the September Crop Production Report, and the lower yield outlook pushed the 2026/27 U.S. stocks-to-use ratio below 10%, which is historically tight. Even so, early signs of softer export and domestic demand could trigger a near-term pullback despite a still-tight global balance sheet.
Outlook: Grain markets could remain volatile near term, but tight balance sheets should help keep a floor under corn prices.
Seafood
Frozen tilapia fillets continued to rebound, rising another 6.7% month over month in July after a similar increase in June. That follows a drop to an all-time low in May, and reduced import volumes over the last few months have helped support the recovery. Even so, the market is typically quiet in the second half of the year, and current indications suggest pricing may flatten out through early 2027 before a more seasonal rally develops in March.
Outlook: Tilapia prices may hold steady after their recent rebound, with limited upside near term before a more meaningful spring rally becomes possible.
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Expert insights curated weekly
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