CommodityOne Weekly Report – Week of August 18, 2026

Poultry

Poultry production remains generally available, but pricing was softer across much of the complex last week. Chicken slaughter was in line with the prior week and about 2% above last year, while production for the week ending August 8 increased 1% week over week but was still 1.2% below last year because bird weights fell 1.7%. Year-to-date output is still running 2.4% ahead of 2025, supported by better bird availability, and both broiler egg sets and chick placements are holding about 1% above year-ago levels. On the pricing side, whole birds and leg quarters were exceptions to an otherwise weaker market, while breast meat, tenders, wings, turkey breast, and table eggs all moved lower. One of the more important structural trends continues to be the strength of dark meat: in July, boneless skinless thighs reached a record premium over boneless skinless breasts for the month, supported not only by exports but also by stronger domestic dark meat consumption growth.

Outlook: Expect poultry markets to remain mostly manageable near term, but dark meat should continue to outperform white meat unless domestic white meat demand accelerates later this year.

Beef

Beef production improved last week, but the broader supply picture is still historically tight and demand signals are becoming more mixed. Weekly beef output rose 1.3% and was only 1.4% below the same week last year, but year-to-date production remains down 5.5% because cattle slaughter is still running 8% lower. Beef markets were firmer on the week, with the USDA choice boxed beef cutout up 1.8% and select up 0.6%, led by gains in briskets, loins, and choice ribs, while flanks continued to weaken. Even with that recent firmness, boxed beef values remain near 5% below year-ago levels. On the demand side, signs of resistance to record retail beef pricing continue to build, with USDA trimming its 2026 per capita beef consumption estimate to 58.9 pounds per person, or 0.5% below last year. Trade data reinforced the supply imbalance: June beef exports fell 10% year over year, while imports jumped 24%, setting a monthly record for June and the second-largest monthly total on record. Mexico remains a key market to watch, especially as imported lean beef trim continues to trade well below comparable domestic product.

Outlook: Beef pricing should stay fundamentally supported by tight cattle supplies, but elevated retail prices and rising imports may limit upside and create more buyer resistance heading into fall.

Pork

Pork fundamentals remain frustratingly soft for producers and buyers alike, with lower production not translating into stronger markets. Last week’s pork output rose 2.2% from the prior week but was still 1.5% below last year, while year-to-date production is just 0.4% above 2025 thanks entirely to 1.1% heavier carcass weights. Summer pork production is expected to run about 2% below last year, yet the USDA pork cutout still moved lower last week as ribs and hams weakened. Loins and bellies were the only primals higher, with bellies approaching their highest levels in a year. Demand remains the bigger issue: domestic pork consumption continues to underwhelm despite pork’s large pricing discount to beef, and USDA lowered its 2026 domestic per capita pork consumption estimate, with 2026 consumption now expected to hover near the lowest level in a decade. Export performance has also been lackluster, down 4% in June year over year, though Mexico continues to be a relative bright spot, especially for hams, where year-to-date exports are up 1% from 2025 and sitting at a record high. Domestic ham prices are tracking roughly 6% below last year, and seasonality suggests further downside this fall.

Outlook: Pork values may stay under pressure through the fall as soft domestic demand and seasonal weakness in hams offset tighter production.

Produce

Produce pricing remains remarkably calm across the major foodservice categories, though avocados are a developing watch item. Last week there was little movement across the “big five” produce items, with lettuce and tomatoes essentially flat week over week. Potatoes continue their expected seasonal climb and appear poised to reach 2025 highs as soon as this week, but that rally has so far remained orderly and in line with normal pre-harvest patterns. The biggest outside risk is avocados after USDA suspended inspections in Michoacan, Mexico, the largest supplier of avocados to the U.S. For now, stateside pricing has not reacted meaningfully, with 48-count Hass avocados basically flat week over week, but if the security issue behind the suspension lingers, that could quickly trigger the August price increase the market had largely avoided so far.

Outlook: Most produce markets should remain steady near term, but avocados carry the clearest upside price risk if Mexico inspection disruptions continue.

Dairy

Dairy markets were mixed last week, with cheese showing more strength than butter. Cheese blocks, barrels, and nonfat dry milk averaged higher on the week, while butter and dry whey softened, and trading volumes suggested a relatively quiet finish to the week with only 16 loads changing hands Friday. U.S. milk production remains seasonally light, but available cream and sufficient butter inventories continue to weigh on butter pricing. Cheese fundamentals are stronger, supported by solid retail feature activity and especially robust exports. In June, U.S. cheese exports jumped 24% year over year to a new record, helped by the fact that the CME cheese block average for the month was the second lowest June average in more than a decade, making U.S. product highly competitive globally. The bigger strategic question is whether export strength can drive a lasting domestic rally; for now, unless international cheese prices recover meaningfully, sustained upside in CME cheese appears limited and that pattern could linger well into 2027.

Outlook: Cheese should remain the strongest part of the dairy complex, but global pricing dynamics are likely to cap any major sustained upside in domestic markets.

Grains

Grain markets were mostly quiet last week except for corn, but wheat may be the more important story for operators watching longer-term cost risk. Corn rallied sharply following Tuesday’s August WASDE and Crop Production reports, while wheat’s underlying support story received less attention. Wheat briefly softened on reports that Ukraine had proposed a mutual halt on attacks against commercial shipping in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov, but Russia quickly rejected the offer, leaving export risk intact. That matters because August is a critical shipping window for the region, and prolonged disruption is beginning to raise concerns that go beyond near-term logistics. There are now reports that some farmers may lack the income needed to prepare for the 2026/27 planting season, raising the possibility that today’s shipping disruptions could create broader supply implications down the road. Unless there is a meaningful de-escalation in the region, wheat retains notable upside potential from current levels.

Outlook: Wheat prices still appear biased higher as Black Sea shipping risk shifts from a short-term disruption story toward a potentially larger supply concern.

Seafood

Seafood import pricing was relatively calm in the latest June data, but cod continues to stand out as a major inflation story. Across the six seafood items monitored most closely, none moved more than 7% month over month, yet frozen cod filet still rose another 5% in June after nearly flattening in May. That extends cod’s rally to four straight months, during which the average price has surged almost 52% and established new all-time highs each month in data going back to 2013. Import volumes improved for a second consecutive month, though they remain somewhat below typical seasonal levels. The encouraging signal for buyers is that volumes should continue improving through the balance of 2026, which could help cap the rally over the next month or two and potentially set up some price relief later in the year.

Outlook: Cod remains the seafood market to watch, but improving import volumes should begin limiting further upside and may lead to a late-year correction.