CommodityOne Weekly Report – Week of April 7, 2026

Poultry

Chicken production dipped slightly week over week, but forward indicators remain strong, with chick placements and egg sets running ~2% above last year and USDA projecting a 300M lb. increase in Q2 output. Pricing firmed across most cuts, with boneless skinless breasts up 17% in the past month, while eggs and turkey softened.

Outlook: Supply expansion and strong producer economics should keep availability elevated, which may cap sustained price increases. However, category-level volatility remains, especially in wings, reinforcing the need for SKU-level tracking and forecasting.

Beef

Beef production increased 2.2% week over week but remains significantly constrained year over year, with output down 6.4% and cattle slaughter tracking ~10% below last year. Record cattle prices persist while packer margins remain negative, signaling continued supply pressure.

Outlook: Structural supply constraints will continue to drive elevated pricing, with limited near-term relief. Long-term herd rebuilding remains challenged by drought conditions, making beef a key category for cost modeling and substitution strategies.

Pork

Pork production is slightly down year to date (-0.4%), with soft hog pricing and modest gains in the pork cutout driven by ribs and ham. However, recent USDA data points to weaker-than-expected herd size and production outlooks.

Outlook: Tighter supply expectations later in 2026 could create upward pricing pressure, though improved productivity metrics like pig-per-litter yields may offset some constraints. Seasonal demand will be a key driver in the near term.

Seafood

Tilapia prices hit a record low of $1.41/lb. in January, driven by fluctuating import volumes. Seasonal patterns suggest tightening supply and rising prices through early spring.

Outlook: Short-term price increases are likely as imports seasonally decline, followed by a return to downward pricing trends by May. Timing purchases around these cycles will be key for cost control.

Produce

Iceberg lettuce is stabilizing near $10/carton, while roma tomatoes continue to surge toward $40/carton due to ongoing supply disruptions. Avocado pricing is trending upward but remains below typical seasonal levels.

Outlook: Produce volatility remains highly supply-driven, particularly in tomatoes, where inconsistent regional output continues to impact pricing. Expect short-term fluctuations until supply normalizes later in April, with avocados gradually increasing into early summer.

Dairy

Dairy markets held relatively steady, with cheese up slightly and butter down ~2%. Milk production is increasing seasonally, while exports remain a key demand driver—cheese exports up 30% YoY and butter up 77%.

Outlook: Strong export demand is helping offset increased production, but ample supply may keep domestic prices relatively stable. Watch for continued divergence between domestic and export-driven pricing dynamics.

Grain

Grain markets were mixed, influenced by biofuel policy updates, USDA reports, and geopolitical factors. Soybeans remained relatively stable, while soybean oil has struggled to regain upward momentum since early March.

Outlook: Markets remain highly sensitive to macro drivers, including energy markets and global trade developments. Expect continued volatility, with limited directional clarity until policy and geopolitical signals stabilize.