CommodityOne Weekly Report – Week of March 3, 2026

Poultry

Chicken markets were largely steady last week as harvest declined 3.5% week-over-week but remained 3.3% higher year-over-year. Breasts held at $1.47/lb and tenderloins at $1.52/lb, while wings dipped slightly to $1.20/lb but remain significantly lower than last year. Dark meat strengthened, with boneless/skinless thighs up 7% month-over-month and 10% year-over-year. Egg prices fell sharply, down 26% week-over-week and now 89% below last year.

Outlook: Chicken markets appear stable in the near term, though strengthening demand for dark meat could push some items higher. Eggs remain under downward pressure due to strong supply, but avian influenza continues to represent a potential disruption risk that could quickly tighten markets.

Beef

Beef markets strengthened last week with both choice and select cutouts rising 3%, as packers reduced harvest levels to support pricing. Ribeyes climbed to $11.35/lb, striploins reached $10.11/lb, and ground beef 81% increased to $3.84/lb. Trim markets also moved higher, signaling broad strength across the complex.

Outlook: Supply management by packers and strong forward sales of shortloins are expected to push loin pricing higher through March. Beef markets remain structurally tight, and continued production constraints could keep upward pressure on key cuts.

Pork

The pork cutout increased 2% to $97.38/cwt last week, supported by gains in bellies and trim. Loins were mixed, with boneless loins slightly lower at $1.38/lb, while ribs declined 4%. Ham prices softened 2% amid moderate retail demand.

Outlook: Rising harvest volumes and moderate demand are keeping the market balanced, though rebuilding freezer inventories and improving export activity could provide support in the coming weeks. Pork remains one of the more stable protein markets heading into spring.

Seafood

Frozen tilapia filets rebounded 11% month-over-month following a decline late in 2025 caused by shifting import volumes. Early-year seafood markets tend to be more volatile, and current pricing reflects those seasonal patterns.

Outlook: Tilapia prices may move sideways to slightly lower before potentially rising in March or April, which historically marks the seasonal peak. Any increase is expected to remain limited, with prices unlikely to move significantly beyond the $2/lb range.

Produce

Tomatoes were the largest mover among major produce items, with large romas rising nearly 15% week-over-week as markets continue to react to January freeze impacts. Iceberg lettuce dropped more than 19% week-over-week after reaching elevated winter price levels.

Outlook: Tomato markets are expected to remain elevated due to ongoing supply uncertainty in both the U.S. and Mexico. Lettuce may have reached a short-term ceiling, but Western harvest challenges could continue to support higher-than-normal pricing.

Dairy

Cheese prices moved modestly higher last week with blocks at $1.53/lb and barrels at $1.56/lb, while butter edged slightly lower to $1.86/lb. Production remains active, supported by steady retail demand and stable wholesale activity.

Outlook: Dairy markets appear balanced overall. Strong cheese demand and active manufacturing could support prices modestly, while butter production levels may limit near-term volatility.

Grain

Grain markets continued their rally, with corn breaking above key technical levels and soybeans gaining support from surging soybean oil prices. Soybean oil has become the strongest-performing commodity year-to-date as traders anticipate increased renewable fuel demand.

Outlook: Market direction will likely hinge on the EPA’s upcoming biofuel blending mandate announcement later this month. If mandates fall short of expectations, soybean oil and related grain markets could face downward pressure after the current rally.