CommodityOne Weekly Report – Week of May 20, 2026

Poultry

Young chicken slaughter dipped slightly week-over-week but remains 1% above last year, with YTD production up 3%. Most chicken markets moved higher, except boneless skinless breasts, which are on pace to average lower in May than April — a rare occurrence — despite record discounts to hamburger. Wings remain near decade-low May levels. Egg prices rose, turkey breast eased. News of resumed U.S. beef exports to China raised hopes for other proteins, but Chinese chicken imports are projected to hit their lowest level since 2013.

Outlook: Expect continued pressure on breast and wing markets with limited upside from potential China export news, as domestic supply growth outpaces demand.

Beef

Beef production rose 1.4% week-over-week but YTD output still trails last year by 6.7% due to a 9.3% drop in cattle slaughter. Choice cutout slipped while Select moved higher (and finished above Choice — a possible trade-down signal). Flanks and chucks gained; briskets and loins declined. Trim was firm. China will resume U.S. beef imports, while Brazilian beef access to the U.S. may ease. USDA notably lowered Q2, Q3, and Q4 production estimates, signaling the anticipated feedlot backlog may not materialize.

Outlook: Bullish bias remains intact for beef prices through the balance of the year given tighter-than-expected production forecasts and supportive export news.

Pork

Pork output declined 3.6% week-over-week but finished just 0.3% above last year. The USDA cutout posted only a modest gain, led by butts and ribs. Bellies continue to look like a seasonal buying opportunity — down ~5% on the week, ~13% over the past month, and 16% below year-ago levels. USDA’s updated 2026 forecast shows Q2 pork production up just 1% y/y with only modest per capita consumption gains. Exports to China remain weak, but March exports to Mexico hit a record high (+7% y/y), with Mexican pork demand expected to set records in 2026.

Outlook: Expect bellies to offer near-term value while strong Mexican demand should support hams and provide a floor under broader pork prices.

Produce

Tomatoes are dropping sharply as Eastern U.S. and Mexican supplies come online, though pent-up demand may keep prices elevated short-term; 25 lb. large romas should return to the $10–$15/carton range by end of June. Onions are leveling off as the market transitions to new California and New Mexico crops, with a sharp downturn expected, though yellows may retain some April gains. Lettuce remains at historically inflated levels, with full recovery not expected until end of May; 24-count iceberg should return to $15–$20/carton by mid-June.

Outlook: Relief is coming across the big three items, with meaningful price improvement expected by mid-to-late June as new crop supplies fully ramp up.

Dairy

Friday’s CME session saw most markets lower, with butter, blocks, and nonfat dry milk down, while a single whey trade moved that market up. For the week, all markets eased slightly except butter (up ~$.02). CME cheese sits 12% below last year and butter is down 30%. Strong seasonal milk production continues to support heavy output, with steady domestic demand and steady-to-strong exports. March U.S. cheese exports surged 29% y/y to a record high, led by Mexico. However, softer Oceania and European cheese prices are making U.S. product less competitive globally.

Outlook: Markets should remain pressured near-term on heavy production, with slowing export momentum posing a potential headwind later this summer.

Grains

A headline-heavy week included the May Crop Production and WASDE reports, with the latter offering the first look at 2026/27 balance sheets. The wheat crop data was the major story (covered separately). EPA’s 2026/27 renewable volume obligations point to biofuel demand jumping ~25% y/y, yet the 26/27 U.S. soybean oil carryout is projected to rise slightly y/y on higher production and lower exports/domestic use.

Outlook: Soybean oil looks fundamentally overvalued above $70, and a downward correction is likely once the trade aligns with the bearish carryout outlook.

Seafood

Frozen tilapia filet fell 8.8% month-over-month in March — surprising given tilapia typically peaks between March and April after a strong Feb-to-March surge (averaging +13.5% over the past six years, with no decline in that window since 2015). Tilapia entered 2026 at an all-time low after last year’s April–July collapse. Weaker April import volumes likely provided brief price support.

Outlook: Tilapia has likely reverted to a sideways-to-slightly-lower trend in real time, with limited near-term catalysts for meaningful recovery.