CommodityOne Weekly Report – Week of March 31, 2026

Poultry

Chicken production eased about 1% week over week for the period ending March 21 but remains 3.1% above last year year-to-date, reinforcing a strong supply position, while wing prices dropped to their lowest level since June 2023, hovering near $1.00/lb.

Outlook: Expect stable to slightly pressured pricing as strong production, improved hatch efficiency, and ample supply continue to offset demand, with limited upside across most cuts.

Beef

Beef production rose 3.7% week over week but remains down 12.1% year over year, with slaughter still tracking nearly 10% below 2025 levels, keeping supply tight even as boxed beef prices softened slightly.

Outlook: Prices are likely to remain elevated as constrained supply and historically strong demand, including projected 17-year-high consumption, continue to support the market.

Pork

Pork production increased 1.3% week over week and is up 2.5% year over year, contributing to softer pricing, with ham values falling to two-year lows and overall cutout down 2.3% on the week.

Outlook: Near-term pressure may persist, but tightening future supply expectations, including potential downward revisions to summer output, could provide support later in the season.

Seafood

Frozen cod prices surged unexpectedly due to counter-seasonally low import volumes, diverging from typical trends where imports peak in winter and ease into spring.

Outlook: Prices may stabilize as import volumes recover toward typical April lows, though continued tight supply could push cod toward historically high pricing levels if replenishment lags.

Produce

Iceberg lettuce continues trending toward the $10–$15/carton range, while tomato markets remain elevated due to ongoing Eastern U.S. supply constraints, with Mexican supply still insufficient to fully offset shortages.

Outlook: Expect continued volatility, particularly in tomatoes, as regional supply challenges persist, while some categories like citrus may see gradual seasonal price increases heading into summer.

Dairy

Cheese blocks (+$0.0145) and nonfat dry milk (+$0.088) closed higher last week, while butter slipped slightly to $1.8155, with milk production increasing seasonally and Class III pricing indicating ample supply for cheese.

Outlook: Limited upside in the near term due to ample milk supply and mixed export demand, though seasonal trends could support modest gains in cheese and butter pricing into spring.

Grain

Soybean oil markets reacted to stronger-than-expected renewable fuel mandates, though delayed biofuel import penalties until 2028 tempered bullish sentiment, creating mixed signals for the grain complex.

Outlook: Expect continued volatility as policy developments and biofuel demand shape pricing, with upside potential constrained by uncertainty around long-term regulatory impacts.