CommodityOne Weekly Report – Week of June 9, 2026

Poultry

Chicken slaughter has rebounded sharply, up 10% week-over-week and 2.6% ahead of last year, supported by improved flock efficiency. While front-half cuts (wings, tenders, breasts) are experiencing weakening prices, thighs and leg quarters remain steady. Table eggs are also easing towards $0.50/dozen. On the turkey front, April output was 9.6% above last year, indicating a gradual recovery from avian flu, though it remains historically low. Supplies are expected to build steadily in the coming months.

Outlook: Expect continued softness on front-half chicken cuts due to abundant production, with turkey supplies gradually rebuilding.

Beef

Beef production saw a significant surge of 19% week-over-week, though it remains 4.3% below last year. Cattle markets experienced volatility following the detection of the New World Screwworm in Texas, a development that poses a setback for herd rebuilding efforts. The choice cutout and beef trim have held firm, while select beef has softened. Notably, hamburger inflation is running substantially higher (16.4% year-over-year) compared to steaks (2%).

Outlook: The divergence in beef pricing, with hamburger products remaining significantly elevated above steaks, is expected to persist, while screwworm monitoring may add cost pressure to tight cattle supplies.

Pork

Pork production surged by 13.6% week-over-week and 4.9% year-over-year, driven by increased slaughter numbers and heavier carcass weights. Hog futures have weakened, approaching early March lows. The USDA cutout has risen over 3% in the past month, primarily led by bellies, although ribs and butts have declined sharply. Retail pork prices have reached a record high but remain at a significant discount to beef, with limited consumer switching observed. Per capita pork consumption growth is projected to be minimal.

Outlook: Soft demand fundamentals and potentially larger hog supplies could temper seasonal upside in pork markets.

Produce

Avocado prices have surged dramatically, with Hass avocados up over 80% in two weeks to their highest level since May 2025. This spike is attributed to the early end of Mexico’s main crop and insufficient supply from California and Colombia to compensate. Relief is anticipated late this month with the start of Mexico’s Loca harvest. Iceberg lettuce prices have seen a modest bounce after declining through May and are expected to hover around the $20/carton mark through summer.

Outlook: Avocado price pressure should ease later this month as new harvests begin, while lettuce prices are expected to remain range-bound near $20 through the summer.

Dairy

CME spot dairy trade was quiet with mixed results, as nonfat dry milk (NDM) and cheese blocks declined, while butter prices gained. Milk production is seasonally easing in some regions but ramping up in others. NDM prices, after reaching historic highs earlier this spring, appear to have peaked. Year-to-date NDM output is up nearly 7%, and stocks are gradually rebuilding, though they remain below historical averages.

Outlook: NDM prices have likely peaked, with limited near-term downside potential as production rebounds and stocks recover.

Grains

The grains sector has extended its sell-off, with soybeans joining corn in declining. The fall in soybean prices has impacted soybean oil’s rally. Corn prices have dropped sharply, influenced by improving Corn Belt weather forecasts, despite previously robust demand at higher levels.

Outlook: Corn may find technical support but faces risks of testing the $4 level amid ongoing negative momentum.

Seafood

Frozen snow crab imports saw a modest 7.6% month-over-month increase in March, but the overall data was somewhat subdued ahead of the typical April import season. Post-COVID, snow crab pricing has been volatile. This year’s strong import season is expected to moderate typical summer price gains and could potentially lead to a downturn later in the year.

Outlook: Expect more moderate summer price increases for snow crab due to strong import volumes this season.