CommodityOne Weekly Report – Week of June 23, 2026

Poultry

Poultry fundamentals continue to strengthen as young broiler slaughter increased nearly 1% week over week and more than 1.5% year over year, while year-to-date production remains 2.5% above 2025. Broiler egg sets and chick placements are also trending higher, signaling continued production growth. Meanwhile, chicken markets softened across most categories, with tenders now trading nearly $0.50/lb below boneless skinless thighs.

Outlook: Expanding production and strong placement data point to ample poultry supplies and continued pricing pressure through the third quarter.

Beef

Beef production rose just 0.2% week over week but remains 3% below last year, reflecting ongoing supply constraints. Although June 1 cattle-on-feed inventories reached their highest level since 2022, May placements fell nearly 10% year over year, the lowest May total in 17 years. USDA also lowered its 2026 beef production forecast by 2.2%, reinforcing expectations for tighter supplies despite projected seasonal gains in Q3.

Outlook: Beef markets are expected to remain fundamentally tight, though increased third-quarter production could provide modest seasonal price relief if forecasted volumes materialize.

Pork

Pork production continues to outpace last year, rising 3.7% year over year, with heavier carcass weights offsetting lower slaughter volumes. Belly values increased 10% over the past month, although they remain 34% below last year’s levels, while most other primals continue to trade below 2025 pricing. Market participants are now watching the upcoming USDA Hogs and Pigs report for updated supply expectations.

Outlook: Favorable production levels should keep overall pork supplies balanced, although seasonal demand could create upward movement in select cuts.

Produce

Produce markets remained relatively stable outside of lettuce, where 24-count iceberg prices climbed another 7.4% week over week to a new year-to-date high amid ongoing supply constraints in both eastern and western growing regions. Roma tomatoes posted their first weekly gain since April, reflecting expected seasonal movement after returning to normalized pricing.

Outlook: Lettuce availability remains the primary concern, while most other produce categories should follow normal seasonal pricing patterns into mid-summer.

Dairy

Dairy markets softened across most categories as nonfat dry milk declined nearly $0.20/lb to a 16-week low, butter remains 38% below year-ago levels, and cheese continues to trade roughly $0.30/lb below its five-year average. While warmer weather is expected to reduce milk output and tighten cream availability, overall herd size continues to support ample supply.

Outlook: Seasonal production declines may create localized price movement, but overall dairy fundamentals remain favorable heading into the summer months.

Grains

Grain markets were mixed, with corn, soybeans, and wheat stabilizing following recent losses, while soybean oil declined nearly 12% since reaching a three-year high on June 3. Price direction continues to be influenced by crude oil markets, technical support levels, and expectations for adequate domestic supplies.

Outlook: Market volatility is likely to continue, but current supply expectations suggest limited upside risk across most grain markets in the near term.

Seafood

Fresh yellowfin tuna posted the largest move among tracked seafood commodities, declining 17.8% month over month after briefly reaching a one-year high this spring. The correction aligns with historical seasonal pricing patterns, with demand expected to strengthen later in the summer.

Outlook: Yellowfin tuna prices are expected to recover over the next several months and could reach a new year-to-date high before easing toward year-end.