CommodityOne Weekly Report – Week of June 2, 2026

Poultry

Year-to-date chicken production remains approximately 2.9% above last year, even with recent holiday-reduced slaughter. However, price trends are diverging: boneless skinless breast and wing prices are softening (breasts are at 12-week lows, and May wings posted decade lows). Conversely, tenders, boneless thighs, and leg quarters are firming, with thighs trading at a rare premium to breast meat. Table eggs continue to be very inexpensive. While wing inventories are tight, the recent drawdown was below the 10-year average, suggesting no immediate shortage.

Outlook: Expect buyer-friendly conditions for breasts and wings through the summer. There is modest upside risk for dark-meat items and wings during peak seasonal demand.

Beef

Holiday slaughter rates briefly reduced production week-over-week, but the May 1 Cattle on Feed report signals a buildup of cattle. Feedlot inventories are up nearly 2% year-over-year (the largest for the date in three years), with higher placements and lower marketings indicating cattle are backing up. Boxed beef was mixed, with Choice gaining while Select softened. Notably, Choice loin and rib primals are trading below year-ago levels, while brisket and flank showed strength.

Outlook: Anticipate growing market-ready supplies and downward pressure on most beef primal values into late summer and fall, creating opportunities for acquiring lower-cost middle meats.

Pork

Heavier hog weights have kept year-to-date pork production roughly flat. The pork cutout has risen across all primals, led by a significant ~16% rally in pork butts over the past month. April cold storage data reveals tight inventories, particularly for butts (smallest April level since 2021) and bellies (a five-year low, with the smallest seasonal belly build in five years).

Outlook: Strong upward price pressure is expected for bellies and butts through the summer. Current levels look attractive for forward coverage where exposure is material.

Produce

Tomatoes, lettuce, and onions continue to ease from earlier seasonal highs, although tomato price declines are moderating. Potatoes and 48-count Hass avocados have shown renewed, early summer strength. The potato rally appears to have started earlier than usual as old-crop supplies tighten. Avocado prices jumped due to an earlier-than-expected wind-down of Mexico’s main crop.

Outlook: Expect continued seasonal upside for potatoes and avocados through late summer as supplies remain constrained. Other leafy and field vegetables should normalize.

Dairy

CME dairy markets showed mixed activity: cheese and nonfat dry milk declined, while butter and dry whey firmed. Nonfat dry milk appears to have formed a near-term price top. April U.S. milk production rose 2.7% year-over-year, driven by herd expansion and higher yields, confirming structurally ample and growing milk supplies.

Outlook: Ample and expanding milk availability is expected to limit sustained upside in cheese and butter prices throughout the summer and into the second half of the year, maintaining a well-supplied dairy market overall.

Grains

Most grain markets finished lower last week. However, soybean oil extended its rally and cleared the ~$75/cwt technical resistance level, despite soft crude oil and indifferent soybean performance. Further significant gains face resistance at the 2022 four-year high and would likely require supportive crude oil movement.

Outlook: Near-term soybean oil strength is possible, potentially testing multi-year highs. However, a sustained rally beyond current levels will likely depend on supportive crude oil dynamics. Broader grain markets are expected to remain range-bound to soft.

Seafood

Frozen Alaskan pollock fillet prices surged over 15% month-over-month in March, reaching their highest level since early 2025 and recovering much of a multi-year decline. Prices corrected in April, but the overall trend indicates continued upside potential into the fall.

Outlook: Pollock prices are likely to trend higher through the remainder of 2026. Operators with material exposure should consider forward coverage sooner rather than later.