CommodityOne Weekly Report – Week of June 16, 2026

Poultry

Young chicken slaughter ticked down 0.5% last week but remains roughly 1% above a year ago; YTD chicken output is +2.7% (week ending June 6), helped by heavier birds and chick/egg sets running about 2% above last year. Breast and tender prices softened (breast at a 20‑week low), while boneless skinless thighs have been trading at a historic premium over breasts even as U.S. chicken exports are down and dark‑meat export share hit a record low in April; domestic dark‑meat consumption is at record highs (+6% vs. 2025).

Outlook: Expect continued ample chicken availability into summer with growing downside risk to boneless skinless thigh prices as domestic demand absorbs excess dark meat.

Beef

Weekly beef production fell 2.1% from the prior week and is 2.8% below last year; YTD production is down 6.3% vs. 2025. Cutouts finished lower for the week (Select leading the drop), loins and ribs weakest; concerns about New World Screwworm and very poor pasture ratings undermine the near‑term prospects for herd expansion.

Outlook: Prices are likely to remain supported into the second half of 2026 unless pasture conditions improve and screwworm risks are contained — herd rebuild still faces a long road.

Pork

Pork production eased 0.9% week/week but is +3.2% vs. last year; YTD output is ~0.4% ahead of 2025 with heavier carcass weights offsetting slight slaughter declines. Cash hogs were steady‑to‑firm, but the USDA cutout fell ~3.2% driven by a nearly 12% slide in butts; most primals trail year‑ago levels except ribs (bellies are sharply lower, ~32%
below last year).

Outlook: Expect production to stay above last year through summer with continued pressure on many primals (outside ribs), leaving a mixed-to-soft bias for cutouts.

Produce

Lettuce dominated last week’s moves — iceberg prices spiked (24‑count up to a new YTD high) after multiple supply gaps, producing unusually volatile pricing in H1; tomatoes, yellow onions and avocados have cooled toward seasonal norms. Supply constraints in both western and eastern growing regions are keeping buying pressure elevated.

Outlook: Lettuce prices should remain elevated for at least another week or two, with demand destruction and easing supplies likely to temper prices by late June.

Dairy

Trading saw heavy volume on the CME; cheese blocks/barrels gained slightly while most other dairy items trended lower. NDM settled near three‑month lows as buyers delay purchases; butter has shown unexpected firmness and April U.S. butter exports jumped ~73% year/year while imports also rose ~70%.

Outlook: Near‑term downside risk for nonfat dry milk and modest upside pressure on butter that should moderate if U.S. export/import balances shift back toward larger domestic availability.

Grains

Grain losses slowed — wheat ticked modestly higher after September KC hit its 100‑day moving average, soybeans held ground (November may have already broken its 100‑DMA), and corn found support early in the week before rains and larger South American estimates pressured prices. Soybean oil is flirting with a breakout below $70 and remains vulnerable to geopolitical headlines (reported progress on an Iran deal).

Outlook: Expect choppy trade with a slight downside bias for oilseeds (soybean oil) and continued sensitivity of corn/soy prices to South American weather and geopolitical headlines.

Seafood

Frozen cod fillet prices surged again in April import data (+14.4% last week; ~+42% over two months) as import volumes fell to lows not seen since April 2013; two consecutive all‑time highs were set in recent months. May imports likely started to recover, which would be needed to relieve the sharp price run‑up.

Outlook: Cod should see some relief if May import volumes returned to trend; otherwise elevated prices may persist through the summer.