CommodityOne Weekly Report – Week of May 6th, 2025

Poultry

Boneless breast prices climbed to $2.76/lb, up 58% year-over-year, while tenderloins rose $0.10 to $2.21/lb. Boneless thighs matched that price after another strong gain. Whole bird pricing held steady at $1.36/lb, and wings eased $0.05 to $1.33/lb. Turkey breasts also gained 4.6%, while eggs and whole turkeys stayed flat. Harvest volumes dipped slightly week-over-week, adding more pressure to an already tight market.

Outlook: Expect continued chicken price increases into summer, with limited harvest and strong demand from both restaurants and retailers driving further upward movement.

Beef

Choice beef cutouts rose to $343.17/cwt as packers contend with shrinking harvests and rising cattle costs. Striploins and shortloins increased 1–2%, while tenderloins eased 1%. End cuts were strong across the board, and ground beef surged 4% to $3.20/lb. Trim markets were mixed, with 50% trim up 2% and 90% lean flat.

Outlook: Beef prices are likely to stay firm or rise further in the short term, as reduced harvests and strong seasonal demand continue to tighten supply.

Pork

Pork cutouts declined 2% with notable drops in the loin (-6%) and butt (-5%) primals. Boneless pork loins fell $0.08 to $1.30/lb, while spareribs dropped $0.11. Bellies saw a modest gain of 1%, with derind belly prices rising to $1.88/lb. Exports remain a concern, with halted sales to China and mixed global demand.

Outlook: Trade headwinds could further pressure pork prices, potentially translating to lower domestic costs despite short-term volatility in specific cuts.

Seafood

Tilapia and cod showed modest m/m price increases in February, and March data is expected to show sharper gains as import volumes drop. Tilapia, in particular, has historically peaked between March and April due to consistent seasonal trends.

Outlook: Seafood buyers should anticipate near-term price peaks for tilapia, with potential relief coming later in Q2 as import volumes rebound.

Produce

Iceberg lettuce returned to steady levels near $10/carton following a brief price spike, while large tomatoes jumped another 12%—though that rally is expected to fade soon. Hass avocados dropped 2.2% to an 11-week low despite tight supply of large fruit.

Outlook: Produce markets appear stable overall. Tomato prices could ease in the coming weeks, while avocado prices may tick back up by late June.

Dairy

Butter rose slightly to $2.31/lb, and both cheese blocks and barrels saw 2–3% gains. Retail demand is holding firm, but foodservice demand remains soft. Strong milk production is feeding higher cheese output, which may start to put pressure on prices again.

Outlook: Dairy prices could flatten or dip in the weeks ahead as production rises and foodservice demand stays muted.

Grain

Grain prices fell again, led by Kansas City wheat and corn. Chicago wheat remains just above long-term technical support. Drier forecasts in the U.S. Southern Plains may provide some stabilization, but export demand remains sluggish.

Outlook: Without stronger global buying or weather-driven supply issues, grains—especially wheat—are likely to remain under downward pressure.