CommodityOne Weekly Report – Week of July 7, 2026

Poultry

Chicken production continues to run ahead of last year, with year-to-date output up 2.6% and weekly harvest levels still trending higher. Even with that added supply, the market is split: breast meat has fallen to a seven-month low and tenders are down 6%, while wings moved the opposite direction, climbing 8% to a 13-week high. Record bird weights, up 3.7% year over year, are helping keep overall availability comfortable.

Outlook: Poultry remains fairly balanced overall, but the growing spread between breast meat and wing pricing means cut-level buying strategy matters more than ever.

Beef

Beef fundamentals remain tight, with fed cattle slaughter down 8.3% from the same week last year. Boxed beef values eased 1.5% last week, but that softer move was driven mostly by loin items like strips and top sirloins, while the broader supply picture remains constrained. With placements still limited, the market continues to suggest tighter availability ahead.

Outlook: Beef prices are likely to stay elevated overall, so operators may want to stay flexible and look closely at specific cuts where temporary value appears.

Pork

Pork continues to be one of the more attractive proteins in the market. Bellies are down 33% year over year, and while the overall cutout increased about 1% last week, second-quarter gains were far smaller than normal seasonal trends, signaling softer demand. Slaughter remains above last year, which is helping keep near-term supplies available.

Outlook: Pork still offers strong menu value today, though seasonal firming later in the quarter could start to narrow that advantage.

Produce

Produce markets finally saw some relief after several weeks of pressure. Iceberg lettuce fell 28% week over week, 48-count Hass avocados dropped 19.7% to a six-week low, and large Roma tomatoes declined 16.8% to a new year-to-date low. While this gives buyers some breathing room, transition-driven volatility has not fully disappeared.

Outlook: Produce costs have softened in the short term, but operators should stay alert since weather and regional shifts can reverse these markets quickly.

Dairy

Cheese markets remain favorable for buyers, with June CME block averages running 18% below last year and marking one of the weaker June price levels in the past decade. At the same time, summer heat is beginning to reduce milk output and spot availability is becoming less abundant, which could help put a floor under the market.

Outlook: Dairy is still providing some cost relief, but the room for further downside appears increasingly limited.

Grains

Corn and grain markets are becoming more weather-sensitive following the USDA’s June Acreage Report. Corn stocks were estimated at 5.295 billion bushels, below trader expectations, reinforcing the idea that demand remains solid and supply is not overly burdensome. That tighter tone could keep markets reactive through the heart of the growing season.

Outlook: Grain volatility could increase quickly from here, especially if weather or updated crop expectations add more stress to the supply outlook.

Seafood

Frozen Alaskan pollock remains one of the more notable seafood stories, with prices reaching a 17-month high after climbing 26% since February. The move has been driven largely by low import volumes, though recent data suggests the market may be nearing a bottom on supply pressure. Even so, seasonal patterns often keep support under pollock later in the year.

Outlook: Seafood buyers may not see immediate relief in pollock, but improving import trends could eventually help stabilize pricing.