CommodityOne Weekly Report – Week of May 27, 2026

Poultry

Poultry markets continue reflecting strong production expansion, with chicken output running above prior-year levels and breeder flock growth pointing to sustained supply increases ahead. Chicken breast pricing is now down 45% year-over-year, while turkey breast markets have fallen nearly 20% over the last month as production improves. USDA placement and breeder data continue signaling elevated poultry availability through at least mid-summer.

Outlook: Elevated poultry production is expected to continue pressuring most chicken and turkey markets in the near term.

Beef

Beef production remained constrained last week as cattle slaughter continued running significantly below last year due to ongoing packer margin pressure. Mixed cutout performance reflects continued volatility across beef categories, while feedlot inventories and placements posted year-over-year gains. Potential El Niño conditions could also influence longer-term herd expansion dynamics across major cattle-producing regions.

Outlook: Beef markets are expected to remain volatile as slaughter constraints and herd rebuilding conditions continue impacting supply fundamentals.

Pork

Pork production declined modestly week-over-week but still remained above year-ago levels overall. Butts and ribs continued strengthening while belly markets fell sharply again, contributing to continued divergence across the pork complex. USDA forecasts still project 2026 pork production to reach record-high levels despite some seasonal production declines later this year.

Outlook: Record-level pork production expectations are likely to continue supporting overall supply availability through 2026.

Produce

Produce markets stabilized last week as tomato, onion, and lettuce pricing continued easing from elevated spring levels. Roma tomato pricing moved lower again, while onion and lettuce markets gradually normalized. Market attention is beginning shifting toward avocados as Mexico’s crop transition and weaker upcoming Loca crop projections point toward tighter summer supplies.

Outlook: Produce markets are expected to remain softer across several core vegetables while avocado pricing strengthens through the summer transition period.

Dairy

Dairy markets weakened again last week, with cheese, butter, and nonfat dry milk all posting notable declines. U.S. milk production remains exceptionally strong, supported by continued herd expansion and increased milk yields, while export demand for nonfat dry milk is beginning to soften. Cheese and butter markets are now trading well below prior-year levels.

Outlook: Strong milk production and weakening export demand are expected to continue weighing on dairy markets near term.

Grains

Grain markets traded relatively quietly last week despite continued geopolitical and energy market developments. Corn prices briefly rallied following news surrounding a new U.S.-China agricultural agreement before retreating as markets questioned the agreement’s broader demand impact. Even without additional Chinese demand, U.S. corn exports remain historically strong.

Outlook: Grain markets are expected to remain reactive to global trade developments, energy pricing, and export demand trends.

Seafood

Fresh yellowfin tuna pricing surged 19.5% month-over-month in March, marking one of the sharpest seafood category increases this year. While some recovery was expected following historically weak 2025 pricing, the magnitude of the rebound exceeded normal seasonal patterns. Recent market behavior suggests some softening may already be developing following the March spike.

Outlook: Yellowfin tuna pricing is expected to remain elevated through much of the summer despite signs of modest market stabilization.