Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
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Poultry
Chicken supply remains relatively ample, even as producers appear to be slowing output growth in an effort to support pricing and improve margins. Young chicken slaughter last week was up 0.3% versus the prior week and sharply above year-ago levels due in part to the Labor Day calendar comparison, while year-to-date slaughter is still 2.3% above 2025. Even so, most chicken markets moved lower last week, led by a 4% drop in wings, and chicken tenders fell to a 43-month low. On the supply side, the August 1 broiler layer inventory was 1.5% above last year, and pounds produced per layer are averaging 4.4% higher year over year, a record pace.
Outlook: Unless the layer flock starts to shrink, any slowdown in chicken supply growth may prove temporary and could limit sustained upside in pricing.
Beef
Beef production improved week over week, but overall supplies remain meaningfully tighter than last year. Output last week increased 3.7% from the prior week but was still 3.1% below the same week last year, with 2026 year-to-date production down 5.4% due largely to a 7.9% decline in cattle slaughter. Beef cutout values softened on the week, with briskets, flanks, and plates posting the largest declines, while ribs were the only primal to move higher. A major longer-term development is the return of cattle imports from Mexico, which resumed on August 24, with the Douglas, AZ port reopening first and the St. Teresa, NM port expected to follow later this month.
Outlook: Tight domestic cattle supplies should continue to support beef values, but resumed Mexican imports may gradually ease supply pressure later this year.
Pork
Pork production remains only modestly above last year, but that has not been enough to prevent further price weakness. Last week’s output rose 0.2% from the prior week and was 0.5% above the same week last year, bringing year-to-date production to 0.4% above 2025 despite a 0.7% decline in hog slaughter. The USDA pork cutout fell 1.6% to its lowest level since February, with pork bellies dropping nearly 6% on the week. Seasonally, September is often a weak month for pork, and historically the pork cutout has averaged lower than August in 9 of the last 11 years.
Outlook: Seasonal pressure and limited demand momentum suggest pork prices may stay soft in the near term, especially for bellies and trim.
Produce
Produce markets were mixed again last week, with avocados continuing to ease while tomatoes and lettuce stayed firm. 48-count Hass avocados fell to a four-month low, giving back the last of their late-May gains and moving back near year-ago levels. Meanwhile, 25 lb. large roma tomatoes increased for a third straight week and reached a 14-week high, supported in part by heavy rains in key eastern U.S. growing regions. Avocados are already inexpensive for early September, which may help limit further downside even if last year’s seasonal pattern continues.
Outlook: Avocados may be nearing a price floor, while tomatoes still appear to have upside potential through the fall.
Dairy
Dairy markets were mixed last week, with butter and cheese lower while nonfat dry milk and whey moved higher. Butter fell to its lowest price in more than seven months, and cheese blocks hit a nine-week low, while nonfat dry milk climbed to its highest level in over two months. On the production side, USDA’s July data showed continued expansion: butter production rose 5.5% year over year, setting a record for July, and cheese production increased 2.1%, also marking a July record. Even with heavy output, international skim milk powder prices — particularly in Europe — are helping support the nonfat market.
Outlook: Strong production may keep butter and cheese competitively priced this fall, though nonfat dry milk could remain better supported by global market strength.
Grains
The grain rally paused last week as wheat sold off following more dovish rhetoric from Russia regarding the war in Ukraine, dragging corn and soybeans lower as well. Even so, the market is heading into a critical week with the USDA’s September Crop Production and WASDE reports due Friday. Much of the trade is focused on whether the USDA lowers corn yield estimates in line with recent Pro Farmer observations, especially given already-tight domestic and global corn balance sheets. If production is revised lower and demand is not reduced enough to offset it, the market could quickly regain strength.
Outlook: Grain markets may turn volatile again this week, with corn prices particularly sensitive to any bearish or bullish surprises in the USDA reports.
Seafood
Pollock prices continued to track cod higher, though the latest increase was still uncomfortable for buyers. Through the June import data released last month, frozen Alaskan pollock filet rose 3.8% month over month, closely following cod’s 5% increase. While pollock has not reached the record highs seen in cod, the uptrend since February has been notable. Import volumes did not start falling below normal until June, when they essentially flatlined rather than following the usual seasonal climb, suggesting supply improvement may be slow to materialize.
Outlook: Pollock prices may not have much additional upside from here, but meaningful relief likely remains unlikely before late Q4.
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