CommodityOne Weekly Report – Week of September 30th, 2025

Poultry

Production momentum accelerated again last week, with young chicken harvests up 8.2% week-over-week and 2.4% above last year. Elevated output applied additional pressure to white meat markets — boneless/skinless breasts fell $0.23 to $1.42/lb, and tenderloins slid $0.19 to $1.96/lb. Wings dropped another $0.17 to $1.44/lb, extending their 38% year-over-year decline. Conversely, turkey markets remain historically high, with boneless breasts up 216% YTD.

Outlook: Broiler supply strength is keeping wholesale prices under pressure, particularly for breast and tender cuts. Operators should anticipate continued downside in chicken through October, while turkey pricing holds firm on tight inventories.

Beef

The boxed beef cutout weakened this week, with choice down 4% to $371.97/cwt and select off 2%. Middle meats such as ribeyes and striploins remained resilient, while chuck and round cuts moved lower on seasonal demand shifts. Ground beef 81% eased $0.12 to $3.48/lb, and 90% trim climbed to $4.35/lb.

Outlook: Expect near-term softness across end cuts, with support re-emerging in premium items closer to holiday demand. Reduced placements may lend longer-term stability heading into Q1 2026.

Pork

The pork complex continued its seasonal retracement, down 1% to $110.99/cwt, as loins and tenderloins declined 5% week-over-week. Boneless loins closed at $1.33/lb and tenderloins at $1.75/lb. Exports provided a modest offset, with strong international demand for pork butts and steady rib performance.

Outlook: Global demand remains an essential stabilizer in an otherwise mixed domestic environment. Operators should prepare for moderate volatility as shifting consumption patterns and export momentum compete through early Q4.

Seafood

Yellowfin tuna gained 7.6% month-over-month after extended YTD losses of 34%, signaling a corrective move in a generally soft market. Pollock also remains depressed, down nearly 29% YTD. Import volumes are expected to ease, supporting mild price recovery.

Outlook: Seasonal tightening may lift yellowfin modestly through Q4 before the typical January high. Procurement teams should monitor import data closely as timing will be critical for locking in value on premium seafood categories.

Produce

Produce markets saw minimal disruption last week. Roma tomatoes corrected lower following a sharp mid-September increase, while iceberg lettuce dipped just under 10%, marking a slower pace of decline. Current field conditions indicate stable quality and consistent availability across major growing regions.

Outlook: Supply stability should persist through October, though gradual upward pricing pressure is likely into late fall. Continued monitoring of transition periods in Western regions remains critical for forward planning.

Dairy

Dairy markets reflected mixed dynamics. CME cheese blocks slipped $0.04 to $1.64/lb, while butter extended its recent decline to $1.64/lb as producers scaled up output ahead of holiday demand. Regional milk supplies remain ample, sustaining moderate cheese production despite seasonal shifts.

Outlook: Near-term softness in butter and stable cheese pricing present favorable conditions for buyers. Market equilibrium is likely to continue through Q4 before holiday pull-through firming begins.

Grain

Grain futures were largely rangebound to lower. Corn exports surged to 1.923 million metric tons — a new record pace for this point in the marketing year — but futures struggled to break resistance at the 100-day average. Wheat held steady on firmer Russian export values and stronger U.S. sales.

Outlook: Despite robust export activity, technical pressure continues to weigh on futures. Feed cost relief is likely to persist through Q4, contributing to stability in protein markets.