CommodityOne Weekly Report – Week of October 7th, 2025

Poultry

Harvest levels climbed again last week, with USDA reporting 175 million head — up 2.5% year-over-year. Increased production drove additional weakness across white meat segments: boneless/skinless breasts fell $0.16 to $1.26/lb, tenderloins dropped $0.21 to $1.75/lb, and wings declined $0.14 to $1.30/lb. Turkey pricing was mixed, with boneless breasts continuing to rise while whole birds fell nearly 7%. Egg prices also corrected lower, down almost 30% week-over-week.

Outlook: Broiler prices are likely to stay under pressure in the short term as output outpaces demand. HPAI headlines could inject brief volatility as the migration season progresses.

Beef

Cattle and beef markets softened as both choice and select cutouts declined 2–3% from the prior week. Ribeye and loin values were steady to mixed, while end cuts trended lower amid softer retail activity. The ground beef segment held near $3.50/lb as supply remained ample. Seasonal buying patterns and lower feedlot placements are beginning to shape Q4 pricing behavior.

Outlook: Expect mild weakness through mid-October, followed by stabilization as holiday procurement lifts high-value cuts.

Pork

Pork values moved lower overall, with the cutout down 3% to $107.35/cwt. Bellies were sharply weaker, off 13%, while loins and tenderloins firmed slightly on export demand. Butts and ribs drifted lower, and trimmings declined in tandem with softer domestic consumption.

Outlook: The pork market should remain rangebound in the near term; exports will be key to sustaining prices into late Q4.

Seafood

Snow crab import prices rose 5.6% month-over-month as quotas and inventories tightened heading into the off-season. The late-summer softening reversed sooner than expected, suggesting demand remains resilient despite higher costs.

Outlook: Prices are expected to stay firm through Q4 before trending modestly lower in early 2026 as new supply enters the market.

Produce

Iceberg lettuce posted its first meaningful gain in weeks, climbing 12% from prior lows, while Roma tomatoes fell another 13%. The lettuce rebound may reflect short-term bargain buying rather than a sustained shift, though broader market fundamentals point toward firmer pricing by late fall. Other key categories were steady week-over-week.

Outlook: Expect flat to slightly higher pricing trends through November as cooler weather and regional supply transitions influence cost structures.

Dairy

Butter and cheese prices advanced as manufacturers focus on filling holiday orders. Spot butter rose $0.11 to $1.75/lb, and cheese blocks gained $0.14 to $1.78/lb. Export demand remains strong, tightening domestic inventories. Fluid milk prices eased marginally but stayed within seasonal averages.

Outlook: Seasonal production schedules will support firmer pricing through Q4, with limited downside risk in the near term.

Grain

Soybeans led modest gains in the grain complex, buoyed by trade speculation around upcoming U.S.–China talks. Corn and wheat were stable despite mixed export data. Feed input costs continue to offer relief to protein producers as futures remain contained.

Outlook: Grain markets are projected to stay mostly steady, with short bursts of volatility tied to global trade and macroeconomic sentiment.