CommodityOne Weekly Report – Week of November 4, 2025

Poultry

USDA harvest volumes reached 172.6 million head last week, slightly below the prior week but 2% above year-ago levels, reinforcing record-high supply. The National Composite WOG slipped to $1.04/lb, while boneless/skinless breasts fell $0.02 to $1.11/lb. Thigh meat dropped sharply to $1.36/lb, extending a 26% month-over-month decline. Turkey markets and egg prices were steady week-over-week but remain highly inflated versus 2024 benchmarks.

Outlook: With production continuing at elevated levels, the poultry complex is oversupplied. Multi-year low pricing and weaker demand fundamentals suggest continued downward pressure through mid-November, especially if retail activity slows due to consumer spending constraints tied to the potential federal shutdown.

Beef

Cattle futures were broadly lower, down 4–5% week-over-week, despite seasonal strength in the cutout. Choice ribeyes gained $0.79 to $14.80/lb and tenderloins rose $1.87 to $20.82/lb, while rounds softened and 81% ground beef climbed to $3.62/lb. Increased import volumes and risk-averse trading drove futures lower, while wholesale demand for premium primals remained steady.

Outlook: Holiday-driven demand will continue to support middle meats through November, though margin compression may persist for processors and distributors as lower-value cuts weaken. Operators should anticipate modest volatility in trim and grind markets into December.

Pork

Lean hog futures and cash values weakened further last week. The loin primal fell 6% to $87.94/cwt, while butts declined 10%. Bellies outperformed, rising 7% to $152.26/cwt on resilient bacon demand. Hams and trims were steady to lower, despite increased export volumes.

Outlook: Overall pork values remain under pressure due to sluggish domestic movement and falling hog prices. Belly support could fade after the holiday period, leading to a softer overall cutout into early December. Export stability remains key to offsetting weak internal demand.

Seafood

Mahi-mahi markets remain elevated but stable, up 38% year-to-date. Despite limited imports since spring, pricing has followed seasonal expectations—peaking in April and holding through fall. Broader seafood market volatility has not significantly impacted mahi pricing trends.

Outlook: Prices are expected to ease gradually as import volumes recover into late Q4. However, lingering logistical delays may keep mahi above traditional seasonal averages into early 2026. Operators sourcing mahi should evaluate forward contracts to lock in current pricing before the next import cycle begins.

Produce

Iceberg lettuce surged another 52% week-over-week, breaking the $50/carton threshold—the highest level since late 2022. Persistent supply limitations in Western growing regions and delayed field transitions are driving the spike. Roma tomatoes also firmed but appear near a short-term peak.

Outlook: Lettuce volatility is expected to persist until mid-to-late November, with prices potentially surpassing $60/carton before retreating as new crop supply ramps up. Distributors and operators should continue strategic purchasing and adjust menu forecasts for short-term inflation in leafy greens.

Dairy

The dairy complex showed mixed trends last week. Butter eased to $1.58/lb, while cheese blocks and barrels each advanced $0.05 to $1.83/lb. Milk production remains robust, maintaining ample supply of cream and cheese. Export demand continues to support balance in the market, while inventories are steady.

Outlook: Expect stable to slightly firmer cheese prices heading into the holiday period. Butter demand will likely strengthen seasonally, though abundant milk supply should limit significant price movement through year-end.

Grain

Grains ended the week mixed, with soybeans and corn trending higher after the U.S.–China trade agreement announcement. China’s commitment to purchase 12 MMT of soybeans this marketing year and 25 MMT annually through 2028 provided upside support. Soybean oil was the outlier, continuing to trend lower amid shifting demand within the complex.

Outlook: Soybeans may retain upward momentum on trade optimism, while corn and wheat remain range-bound. Procurement teams should watch global export competitiveness and U.S. logistics flows for early signals of Q1 2026 cost direction.