CommodityOne Weekly Report – Week of March 17, 2026

Poultry

Chicken production continues to run strong, with year-to-date output up 3.7% and supply keeping breast meat prices mostly flat compared to February. Thighs are showing strength, up 13% over the past four weeks, while wing prices dropping below $1 signals softer overall market support. Meanwhile, demand remains steady as chicken continues gaining share as the top protein choice.

Outlook: Stable supply should keep pricing relatively flat in the near term, with limited upside unless demand spikes.

Beef

Beef markets continue to climb despite tight supply conditions, with production down 7.6% year-over-year due to reduced cattle slaughter. Strong demand is supporting higher prices, pushing the Choice cutout to six-month highs, led by gains in flanks, loins, and ribs. Futures trading below cash suggests some potential correction, but supply constraints remain a key factor.

Outlook: Prices are expected to remain elevated, with only modest relief possible as futures and cash markets converge.

Pork

Pork production increased last week, helping ease some supply concerns, while hog futures moved lower. However, wholesale prices are strengthening, led by a sharp rise in bellies (bacon), even as retail pork prices hit record highs. That disconnect could begin to weigh on consumer demand if elevated retail pricing persists.

Outlook: Improved supply may bring pricing opportunities later in the year, but near-term demand pressure could limit upside.

Seafood

Yellowfin tuna prices surged over 26% month-over-month in January, following a weak 2025, but this seasonal spike is typical and likely temporary. Despite the recent increase, pricing remains historically low for this time of year. Market patterns suggest this rally will be short-lived before softening again.

Outlook: Expect downward pressure on prices through late spring, with a potential rebound later in the year.

Produce

Tomato prices remain elevated due to ongoing supply disruptions, though recent momentum is slowing, while iceberg lettuce prices are stabilizing after a recent spike. Limes continue their seasonal surge, up significantly year-to-date, but are expected to peak soon. Overall, the market is showing early signs of leveling out after recent volatility.

Outlook: Expect stabilization across key produce items, with seasonal corrections likely heading into late spring.

Dairy

Dairy markets were relatively quiet, with most products trending slightly lower, while whey and nonfat dry milk posted gains. Butter demand remains strong, particularly in export markets, and bulk pricing suggests limited downside despite recent softness. Cheese markets are holding steady with minor fluctuations.

Outlook: Strong demand, especially for butter, should help keep prices supported with minimal downside risk.

Grain

Grain markets maintained their upward trend despite early-week volatility tied to external factors like crude oil. Wheat remains supported by strong fundamentals, while corn is holding gains ahead of the upcoming planting report. Soybeans continue to outperform, influencing acreage expectations for the next cycle.

Outlook: Prices are likely to stay supported in the near term, with potential volatility tied to planting data and global factors.