CommodityOne Weekly Report – Week of March 10, 2026

Poultry

Chicken production continues running ahead of last year, with weekly slaughter reaching 174.9 million head, up 1% week over week and 2.5% year over year. Pricing was mixed across the complex, with modest increases in breasts, thighs, leg quarters, and whole birds, while wings dropped nearly 9% to their lowest level in seven weeks. Strong year-over-year production gains continue to limit broader price pressure in the chicken market.

Outlook: Chicken’s price advantage relative to beef could encourage operators to shift more menu features toward poultry in the coming months. If second-quarter production growth slows closer to USDA forecasts, breast meat prices could see additional support as demand adjusts.

Beef

Beef markets moved higher last week, with Choice and Select boxed beef cutouts rising roughly 2–3%. Strength was concentrated in rib, loin, flank, and plate primals as seasonal demand patterns begin to emerge. Packers remained cautious with cattle purchases as they continue managing tight processing margins.

Outlook: Near-term beef prices may remain firm as seasonal demand develops. However, improving drought conditions in major cattle regions such as Texas and Oklahoma could support herd rebuilding over time, which would eventually influence supply dynamics.

Pork

Pork production remains elevated, with output running more than 5% above year-ago levels despite a slight week-over-week decline in slaughter. The pork cutout still managed to rise about 1%, driven largely by a 6% increase in belly prices. Meanwhile, the rib complex moved lower, with St. Louis ribs trading at a wide discount to babyback ribs.

Outlook: Seasonal demand heading into the spring grilling season could gradually push pork prices higher. The current pricing spread within the rib complex may narrow as demand strengthens.

Seafood

Tilapia prices showed signs of stabilizing after a sharp correction in 2025, though supply remains plentiful due to strong import volumes. Imports have returned to their highest levels since the post-pandemic rebound.

Outlook: Strong import availability could limit sustained price increases for tilapia in the near term. Abundant supply may continue to keep pricing relatively stable compared to other seafood categories.

Produce

Produce markets diverged last week as lettuce prices continued easing from February highs while Roma tomatoes surged sharply. Large Roma prices jumped more than 76% week over week to $37 per carton due to blight in Mexico and freeze damage in parts of the Eastern U.S., creating a tight supply environment.

Outlook: Tomato markets may remain volatile in the near term as supply disruptions work through the system. Elevated prices could persist until new production enters the market and balances availability.

Dairy

Dairy markets saw active trading last week, with butter leading the move higher. Weekly averages for butter climbed nearly 13% to just over $2.06, while cheese prices increased roughly 2% and nonfat dry milk also gained ground. Export demand continues to provide support for butter pricing.

Outlook: Butter prices could remain supported if export demand holds steady, though softer domestic consumption may temper further increases. Cheese supplies remain more available, which could help moderate price movement.

Grain

Grain markets posted another strong week, led by soybean oil alongside wheat, corn, and other row crops. Strength has been linked to rising crude oil prices and geopolitical tensions affecting fertilizer markets and biofuel demand.

Outlook: Continued strength in energy markets and geopolitical uncertainty could sustain upward pressure across the grain complex. Higher grain prices may eventually influence feed costs and protein markets later in the year.