CommodityOne Weekly Report – Week of June 3rd, 2025

Poultry

Poultry markets remained steady overall, with harvests flat w/w and up 2.3% y/y. Boneless breasts dipped slightly to $2.76/lb, while tenderloins rose $0.05 to $2.44/lb. Boneless thigh meat continues its climb, now up 11% m/m and 38% y/y.

Outlook: With demand holding and harvest growth constrained, white and dark meat pricing is likely to stay firm. Supply chain teams should monitor throughput and adjust inbound volumes to avoid margin compression.

Beef

The choice cutout rose to $366.09/cwt, supported by gains in striploins ($11.34/lb), sirloins, and chucks. Ground beef rose to $3.62/lb, and trim markets were higher across the board.

Outlook: Beef pricing will remain elevated in the near term due to reduced harvest activity. Teams should track packer fill rates and cut-level trends to anticipate sourcing pressure and potential substitutions.

Pork

Pork pricing surged last week, with the cutout up 4% and trims, hams, and bellies all moving sharply higher. 72% trim gained $0.14 to $1.19/lb, while pork butts benefited from strong export demand.

Outlook: With export volumes rebounding, pork values may remain elevated. ArrowStream users should utilize forecasting tools to assess forward risk and build flexibility into sourcing programs.

Seafood

Frozen cod reached $4.60/lb, a 22-month high, driven by tight early-year import volumes. While pricing may ease this summer, it’s unlikely to return to historical norms quickly.

Outlook: Seafood buyers should prepare for prolonged elevated cod prices. Consider leveraging ArrowStream demand planning to evaluate alternative species or reformulation options.

Produce

Core produce categories held stable. Romas dropped 22% w/w but remain in a normal seasonal range. Avocados continued easing, while iceberg lettuce stayed flat.

Outlook: Produce markets are showing low volatility. Operators should use this window to align with preferred suppliers and lock in volume-based pricing.

Dairy

Butter prices jumped $0.13/lb to $2.49/lb, while cheese prices held flat. Nonfat dry milk increased to $1.29/lb. Export demand is adding upward pressure to an already tight domestic supply chain.

Outlook: With butter and milk components trending higher, expect gradual inflation across dairy categories. Teams should leverage ArrowStream analytics to compare contract versus spot purchasing performance.

Grain

Grain markets softened despite a disappointing corn crop rating, as favorable June rainfall forecasts tempered market reaction. Tariff headlines were largely ignored by traders.

Outlook: Barring weather-driven disruption, grains are likely to remain range-bound. Procurement teams should monitor cost modeling and forward buys carefully through the Crop Progress updates.