Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
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Poultry
The USDA young chicken harvest rose 2.5% w/w to 172.8 million head, up 2.6% y/y, with wholesale prices mixed. Tenderloins and boneless thigh meat saw significant gains, reaching $2.50/lb (up $0.06) and $2.46/lb (up $0.01), respectively, while boneless/skinless breasts edged up to $2.77/lb. Retail chicken promotions surged 12% w/w, led by tenderloins.
Outlook: Steady demand for cost-effective white meat, paired with constrained harvests, will likely keep prices firm through summer, requiring supply chains to optimize procurement to maintain margins.
Beef
Beef prices climbed, with the CME JUN cattle contract up 3.5% to $222.90/cwt and choice cutout slightly higher at $366.88/cwt. Choice striploins rose $0.50 to $11.84/lb, nearing a record $12.00/lb, while rib segments weakened. Ground beef and trim markets also saw gains, with 81% ground beef at $3.63/lb.
Outlook: Reduced harvests will continue to push beef prices higher, prompting buyers to adjust sourcing strategies to mitigate cost increases.
Pork
Pork markets strengthened, with the CME JUN hog futures up 1% to $100.35/cwt and the pork cutout rising 3% to $108.12/cwt. Belly primal surged 8% to $162.75/cwt, and loin/baby back ribs increased $0.19 to $3.09/lb, though export sales for pork butts weakened.
Outlook: Strong domestic demand through holiday will sustain elevated pork prices, urging retailers to secure supply early to capitalize on holiday demand.
Seafood
Frozen snow crab prices dropped 15% m/m in April, with import volumes rebounding in March after February’s seven-year low of 658 metric tons. Last year’s early on-season may repeat.
Outlook: Prices are expected to remain under pressure through the on-season, enabling buyers to secure favorable deals as supply stabilizes.
Produce
Tomato prices fell sharply, with 25 lb large romas dropping 15% w/w to $9.48/lb, down 33% in two weeks due to light demand and crop transitions. Iceberg lettuce and avocados are nearing year-to-date lows, with stable supply conditions.
Outlook: Prices are likely to stabilize near current lows through summer unless demand spikes or weather disrupts supply, allowing buyers to plan cost-effective purchases.
Dairy
Dairy prices edged higher, with CME spot up $0.13/lb to $2.49/lb and nonfat dry milk up $0.06 to $1.29/lb. Retail cheese promotions flat w/w, supported by strong sales and growing milk availability, while export cheese demand strengthened.
Outlook: Robust domestic and export demand will keep dairy prices supported, encouraging buyers to leverage promotional opportunities to boost sales.
Grain
Wheat prices held steady, with Minneapolis wheat leading gains in a quiet market, despite slight improvements in U.S. spring wheat crop ratings. Export sales hit a five-week low at 444,691 metric tons.
Outlook: Winter wheat crop improvements may cap price gains, suggesting buyers monitor global crop issues and lock in contracts to manage costs.
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