CommodityOne Weekly Report – Week of January 14, 2026

Poultry

Holiday-week chicken harvest declined 2.8% y/y, providing light supply support, while WOGs inched higher to $1.19/lb. White meat pricing firmed modestly, but most chicken parts remain significantly lower y/y, keeping poultry proteins competitively priced. Turkey markets remain elevated y/y, particularly boneless breasts, while egg prices continued their sharp decline as HPAI recovery accelerates.

Outlook: Poultry prices should remain stable through January with balanced demand and recovering supply. Upside risk remains tied to disease disruption rather than fundamentals.

Beef

Cattle markets rebounded sharply, supported by tightening supply, with Feb live cattle up 1.6% and the choice cutout rising 2%. Strength shifted toward end cuts (chucks and rounds), while premium rib items softened. Ground beef and trim prices moved higher, reflecting value-driven demand.

Outlook: Beef markets are likely to trade range-bound into February as demand seasonally eases, though constrained cattle supplies should limit downside risk.

Pork

Pork values weakened post-holiday, with the cutout down 4% and broad softness across loins, butts, bellies, and hams. Export movement, particularly on boneless butts, helped absorb some supply. Trim prices firmed, offering selective support.

Outlook: Expect continued seasonal pressure into month-end with prices holding steady to modestly lower amid adequate hog supplies and lighter retail activity.

Seafood

Late USDA import data showed frozen Alaskan pollock prices fell sharply, reversing recent gains and pushing values back toward seven-year lows. Recovery momentum has stalled, and near-term pricing remains under pressure.

Outlook: Pollock prices are likely to stay defensive into Q2 2026, presenting continued opportunity for cost-driven menu planning and sourcing strategies.

Produce

Lettuce and tomatoes continued their post-Q4 correction, with iceberg prices extending a multi-week slide and tomatoes trending lower toward seasonal floors. Avocados remain under pressure after a prolonged downturn, though early-year stabilization often begins in February.

Outlook: Near-term produce costs remain favorable; monitor avocados closely for early signs of recovery heading into late Q1.

Dairy

Dairy prices softened across most categories as buyers entered January with lighter demand and milk supply remained strong. Cheese prices eased modestly, while butter continued its downward trend and now sits well below five-year averages. Export demand remains a key offset.

Outlook: Dairy markets carry a mild downside bias near term, with exports providing selective support against ample domestic supply.

Grain

Markets were quiet ahead of USDA WASDE and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports. Corn remains the focal point, with strong exports and expectations for lower 2026 acreage increasing sensitivity to any yield revisions. Soybeans and wheat may also see report-driven movement.

Outlook: USDA data is the near-term catalyst; corn carries the greatest upside volatility if yields or stocks tighten.