CommodityOne Weekly Report – Week of February 3, 2026

Poultry

Poultry markets moved higher last week as USDA young chicken harvest volumes declined to 172.9 million head, down 2.5% year over year. Reduced harvest levels, combined with winter weather disruptions at several processing plants, supported price increases across much of the complex. Boneless/skinless breast prices rose $0.06 to $1.32/lb, now 14% higher month over month, while tenderloins increased to $1.47/lb. Wings climbed to $1.12/lb, up 15% month over month, though still 41% below year-ago levels, highlighting the divergence between short-term supply constraints and longer-term pricing trends. Turkey markets remain structurally tight, with boneless turkey breast prices up 185% year over year. Egg markets showed volatility, with the USDA large eggshell index rising nearly 40% week over week.

Outlook: Near-term poultry pricing is expected to remain firm as production recovers from weather-related disruptions. However, broader year-over-year pricing trends suggest limited long-term inflation risk outside of turkey, with short-term volatility driven primarily by operational constraints rather than demand.

Beef

Cattle markets edged higher, with the CME February live cattle contract increasing just over 1% to $235.50/cwt. Despite higher futures, wholesale beef values softened, as the Choice beef cutout declined to $367.66/cwt and Select fell to $360.72/cwt. Middle meats showed mixed performance, with boneless ribeye prices increasing to $10.42/lb, while shortloins declined to $7.73/lb. End cuts weakened across the chuck and round segments. Ground beef prices moved higher, with 81% lean increasing to $3.89/lb, supported by tightening trim availability. Harvest volumes declined by double-digit percentages, reinforcing ongoing structural supply constraints tied to the historically small cattle herd.

Outlook: Beef markets are expected to remain volatile, with limited supply continuing to drive pricing risk throughout 2026. Seasonal demand softness may temper near-term upside, but structural herd constraints point to persistent longer-term pressure.

Pork

Pork markets trended mixed to lower, with the pork carcass cutout declining 2% to $93.43/cwt. The loin primal held steady at $89.68/cwt, while boneless loins edged higher to $1.39/lb and tenderloins increased to $1.93/lb. The belly primal declined 2% to $126.84/cwt, and the ham primal dropped 7% to $81.53/cwt, reflecting softer demand signals. Trim pricing was mixed, with 42% trim declining to $0.54/lb and 72% trim rising to $1.08/lb. Hog harvest volumes were flat week over week, indicating stable near-term supply.

Outlook: Pork pricing is expected to trend steady to slightly firmer over the coming weeks as freezer inventory rebuilding supports the cutout. Absent a demand shock, price movement is likely to remain measured relative to other protein categories.

Seafood

Seafood markets continued to stabilize following the extreme volatility experienced earlier in 2025. Frozen cod filets increased 1.6% month over month in October, reflecting reduced import volumes earlier in the season. Import activity is believed to have recovered into the new year, helping moderate pricing pressure.

Outlook: Seasonal pricing patterns suggest a potential inflection point forming in February, as cod markets typically bottom in January and strengthen into early spring, increasing short-term volatility risk.

Produce

Produce markets reversed higher last week, led by lettuce and tomatoes. Lettuce pricing strengthened as harvest and yield challenges emerged in Western growing regions, ending the market’s recent downward trend earlier than anticipated. While iceberg lettuce prices are rising, they remain below the $40–$50 per carton levels commonly seen during peak spring and summer periods. Tomato markets moved higher as prolonged cold temperatures across the eastern U.S. constrained supply, despite steady import volumes from Mexico.

Outlook: Lettuce pricing may continue to trend higher through late Q1, with additional upside risk into early Q2 if yield issues persist. Tomato pricing is expected to remain firm in the near term, driven primarily by weather-related supply constraints.

Dairy

Dairy markets were mixed across categories. CME block cheese prices increased $0.03 to $1.38/lb, while barrels rose $0.05 to $1.41/lb, supported by steady production and strengthening export demand. Spot butter prices declined $0.08 to $1.49/lb, leaving butter $1.10/lb lower year to date and $0.83/lb below the five-year average. Cream availability remains strong nationally, though some butter manufacturers reported tightening availability of spot loads.

Outlook: Cheese pricing is expected to remain supported by domestic and export demand. Butter markets may begin to stabilize, though regional supply imbalances could continue to drive localized volatility.

Grain

Grain markets were mixed, with corn and soybeans trading near even week over week. Wheat prices experienced a short-term rally driven by cold-weather concerns in U.S. winter wheat regions and Ukraine. Ukraine is projected to be the seventh-largest wheat exporter globally this year; however, forecasts suggest cold temperatures are unlikely to impact Russia’s primary growing regions, limiting sustained upside risk.

Outlook: Wheat pricing may ease as weather-related risk premiums fade. The broader grain complex is expected to remain range-bound, barring new geopolitical or weather-driven disruptions.