CommodityOne Weekly Report – Week of February 24, 2026

Poultry

USDA young chicken harvest rose to 178.4 million head, up 6.4% week over week and 5.6% year over year, helping cool the recent rally across most chicken cuts. Boneless skinless breasts moved to $1.47/lb (up 16.5% month over month but still down 11% year over year), wings held at $1.21/lb, and thigh meat remains one of the few cuts posting year-over-year gains. Turkey markets remain sharply elevated due to ongoing HPAI-related supply constraints, while egg pricing continues to show volatility despite a recent weekly decline.

Outlook: Improved harvest volumes should stabilize chicken pricing near term, but turkey and eggs remain high-risk categories due to disease pressure and supply uncertainty. Forecast models should continue accounting for volatility in turkey and egg inputs through Q1.

Beef

Cattle futures strengthened, with the February contract reaching $247.50/cwt, while boxed beef cutouts softened slightly. Middle meats showed resilience, with boneless heavy ribeye at $10.79/lb and striploins at $9.80/lb, while chucks were mixed. Lower harvest volumes continue to support overall beef pricing despite seasonal demand softness.

Outlook: Reduced harvest levels and significant forward brisket sales are reinforcing pricing support heading into spring. Middle meats and briskets may remain firm, requiring careful scenario planning for Q2 promotional activity and contract exposure.

Pork

The pork cutout edged up to $96.28/cwt, supported by strength in loins, butts, ribs, and bellies. Boneless pork butts rose to $1.47/lb, bolstered by 169 export loads sold last week. Lower harvest volumes provided additional price support even as domestic retail demand remains soft.

Outlook: Pork is expected to trend steady to slightly firmer in the coming weeks. Rebuilding freezer inventories and export demand recovery should help sustain pricing, limiting downside risk in the near term.

Seafood

Frozen Alaskan pollock prices increased 18.3% month over month in December trade data, reaching their highest level since last February. The rebound followed significant volatility throughout 2025.

Outlook: Pollock pricing is expected to soften in March, potentially finding support near $1.40/lb in April before gradually firming later in the year. While extreme swings may moderate, seafood remains sensitive to global trade and inventory shifts.

Produce

Tomatoes and broccoli remain the primary volatility drivers. Roma tomatoes are holding above $15/carton due to ongoing Eastern supply constraints. Broccoli has risen for four consecutive weeks and could approach $50/carton if Mexican supply and quality issues persist. Iceberg lettuce gains appear to be slowing.

Outlook: Tomato and broccoli markets present short-term upside risk, particularly if supply challenges linger. Lettuce may begin easing over the next month. Regional sourcing dynamics will continue influencing landed cost variability across distribution networks.

Dairy

Cheese markets strengthened, with CME blocks at $1.51/lb and barrels at $1.47/lb. Butter increased to $1.78/lb, though year-to-date butter pricing remains well below both last year and the five-year average. Production capacity remains strong, supporting export competitiveness.

Outlook: Cheese may hold firm in the near term, while butter remains comparatively favorable versus historical benchmarks. Balanced production levels should help prevent sharp spikes, though export flows will remain a key pricing variable.

Grain

Soybeans and wheat continued their rally, while corn pulled back after failing to breach $4.40. Recent price strength appears influenced in part by speculative fund activity, particularly in soybean oil, despite elevated stock levels and uncertainty around 2026 biofuel blending targets.

Outlook: Grain markets are likely to remain volatile as policy developments and fund positioning drive momentum. Input cost forecasting should incorporate continued variability, particularly in soybean-linked products.