CommodityOne Weekly Report – Week of December 9, 2025

Poultry

Poultry markets held steady this week with minimal movement across breasts, tenders, wings, and thighs — reinforcing what ArrowStream users will see across production, harvest, and pricing dashboards. Wings remain one of the most attractively priced proteins year-over-year, while dark meat continues to outperform historical averages. Turkey and egg markets remain elevated due to HPAI activity, which supply chain teams should continue monitoring as new cases develop. Production remains strong, supporting near-term pricing stability.

Outlook: Expect poultry prices to stay generally stable through the holidays. Increased production and ongoing HPAI concerns may tug the market in opposite directions, but neither looks strong enough to cause a major swing. Short-term stability, slight seasonal lift.

Beef

Beef markets were mixed, with premium items like ribeyes, striploins, and shortloins continuing to soften — a trend supported by ArrowStream’s cutout and primal-level data. End cuts held mostly steady, helping stabilize grind programs and value-based applications. As retailers transition from clearing turkey inventory into beef-forward holiday promotions, demand patterns are shifting, and those adjustments are already reflected in wholesale movement reports and forecast signals.

Outlook: As retailers clear freezer space from Thanksgiving turkeys and shift to December beef features, expect selective strength in holiday-driven cuts. Most other items should remain steady to slightly lower heading into late December.

Pork

Pork leaned slightly softer overall, with bellies, ribs, and butts moving lower, while loins and tenderloins held firm. Boneless pork butts saw notable export support — a trend procurement teams can track within ArrowStream’s export volume insights. Domestic demand remains muted, keeping the broader pork complex in a stable pricing pattern. Pork continues to provide strong cost efficiency across multiple menu tiers.

Outlook: With lean hog prices aligning closely with the futures market and no big demand growth expected, the pork cutout is expected to continue trending flat to slightly lower into early January.

Seafood

Pollock prices saw a notable rebound after eight consecutive months of declines, aligning with import data and cold storage volumes recently released by USDA. Although prices likely climbed through early fall, historical patterns still point toward a softer Q1 — a trend that creates opportunities for cost-saving strategy and menu planning. ArrowStream users will see these movements surface quickly within item-level and species-level forecasting tools.

Outlook: Pollock should trend lower in early 2026, making it an opportunity for operators planning LTOs, fish sandwiches, or value-driven seafood offerings.

Produce

Tomatoes corrected sharply after last week’s spike as supply levels stabilized — consistent with harvest and shipping intelligence flowing into ArrowStream’s produce dashboards. Lettuce remains firmer than expected due to lingering harvest disruptions, though long-term signals point toward easing as we get deeper into Q1. Potatoes remained steady and significantly below last year’s levels, contributing to more predictable cost structures for high-volume operations.

Outlook: Expect tomatoes and lettuce to stay somewhat choppy through January, but the overall bias points lower as supply concerns ease. Potatoes should remain stable through the winter with only minor seasonal bumps.

Dairy

Cheese prices continued easing this week, which aligns with the steady production and balanced inventories seen across ArrowStream dairy supply data. Butter ticked higher due to seasonal demand but remains within expected ranges, and fluid milk held steady. Export demand remains quiet, reducing upward pressure on the market. These stabilizing trends help mitigate risk for operators tracking volatility across their cheese-heavy SKUs.

Outlook: Cheese should remain favorable through December, while butter likely holds firm before easing after holiday demand fades. Export activity remains quiet and shouldn’t pressure prices near-term.

Grain

Soybean oil rose again even as soybeans weakened, driven by biofuel policy signals and updated feedstock usage data — movements closely tracked within ArrowStream’s grain and oils analytics. SBO feels slightly overbought, but policy-driven uncertainty continues to keep the market firm. Chain operators with heavy fry usage should monitor both spot and contract benchmarks closely as policy decisions evolve.

Outlook: Expect some volatility as biofuel policy updates unfold. SBO may feel overbought short-term, but operators shouldn’t expect dramatic relief until policy direction becomes clearer post-January.