CommodityOne Weekly Report – Week of August 4th, 2025

Poultry

Boneless skinless breast prices ticked up for the first time in eight weeks. Wings are now up 25% month-over-month, while thighs were mixed. Whole birds softened slightly. Retail promotions rose nearly 11% week-over-week. Turkey pricing was split—boneless rose, whole birds fell.

Outlook: The seasonal bottom in chicken pricing may be behind us. However, tariff developments could suppress export activity, pressuring inventory levels. Expect mostly flat to modestly lower pricing until promotional demand picks up in Q4.

Beef

The beef cutout declined another 2% week-over-week, now down more than $30/cwt over the past month. Ribs held firm while loins and end cuts weakened. Grinds and trims continued to slide, with 50% trim posting a notable $0.44/lb drop.

Outlook: Pricing across most cuts has likely peaked for 2025. Rib and end cuts may show late-season resilience, but loins and trim are expected to remain under pressure. Category managers should continue evaluating contract performance and margin impact.

Pork

Pork cutout dropped 5% last week. Loin, rib, and belly segments were down across most subprimals, while ham prices rose modestly. Trim pricing remained mostly flat.

Outlook: Lean hog cash prices are expected to decline further to match futures. Mixed global demand and tariff uncertainty could weigh on cutout values into September. Maintain flexibility in purchasing and closely monitor international trade shifts.

Seafood

Salmon filet prices continued to decline, with import pricing now 4.3% below the five-year average. May marked the third consecutive monthly drop, correcting from historic seasonal highs earlier in the year.

Outlook: The correction is nearing completion. Prices will likely trend lower through November, but at a slower rate. This presents a key opportunity to evaluate forward-buying and spec adjustments ahead of holiday menu planning.

Produce

Potatoes held steady at $15.50/carton but are nearing the top of the pre-harvest rally. Lettuce prices dropped significantly, with iceberg falling nearly 37% w/w. Avocados and tomatoes followed seasonal trends with no current supply issues.

Outlook: Expect short-term stabilization across key produce categories. Q4 price increases are likely, especially on lettuce and avocados. Use regional sourcing strategies to mitigate location-based cost spikes.

Dairy

Cheese blocks and barrels rose modestly last week amid tighter milk supply in some regions. Butter pricing held steady, supported by consistent domestic and export demand. Cream availability is tightening in certain markets.

Outlook: Warmer temperatures are pressuring milk yields, but most contractual volumes are being fulfilled. Expect short-term firmness in cheese pricing, with steady butter demand continuing to support price floors.

Grain

The grain market fell again under pressure from a strong dollar and declining soybean prices. Soybean oil dropped despite improved biofuel demand, which rose to 1.025B lbs in May, making up 28.5% of non-corn feedstock usage.

Outlook: While biofuel recovery is underway, broader weakness in soybean markets is limiting upside. Watch closely for export or weather-related shifts. Prepare contingency plans for Q4 volatility in edible oils and protein feed inputs.