Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
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Poultry
Chicken production softened last week, down 0.6% from the prior week and nearly 2% below the same week last year, while chicken markets were broadly weaker, led by a nearly 5% drop in wing prices. On the supply side, the broiler layer inventory story improved, with the preliminary August inventory coming in 1.5% above last year, suggesting the recent slowdown in output growth may be temporary.
Outlook: Chicken markets may remain relatively contained near term, as improving breeder supply should help limit any major price upside despite recent production softness.
Beef
Beef production rose 3.7% week over week, but remained 3.1% below last year, with year-to-date output down 7.9% versus 2025. Markets were mostly softer last week, boxed beef trended lower, and feedlot placements in July were especially tight at 11% below last year, reinforcing the idea that cattle supplies will stay constrained this fall.
Outlook: Beef fundamentals still point to tight supply this fall, though some categories — especially trim — could face near-term price pressure.
Pork
Pork output improved modestly, up 0.2% from the previous week and 0.5% above last year, leaving year-to-date production 0.4% ahead of 2025. Even so, demand remains sluggish, the USDA pork cutout fell to its fourth-lowest weekly level in the last seven months, and several major cuts — especially hams — moved lower.
Outlook: Seasonal production gains and uneven demand suggest pork prices will stay under pressure this fall, with ribs also likely to soften later in the year.
Produce
Produce was a little more active last week, though still seasonally normal overall. 48-count Hass avocados dropped 15% week over week as support from Mexico inspection disruptions faded, while 24-count iceberg lettuce and 25 lb. large roma tomatoes both posted gains, likely driven by bargain buying after earlier volatility.
Outlook: Produce pricing should remain mostly steady in the near term, with more meaningful upside in lettuce and tomatoes unlikely until at least mid-September.
Dairy
Dairy markets ended the week with a firmer tone, as all CME spot products moved higher except cheese blocks, and nonfat dry milk reached 11-week highs. USDA’s July milk production report showed output up 2.2% year over year, driven by a 2.1% increase in the milk cow herd, while cooler weather continued to support milk availability.
Outlook: Dairy markets should remain fairly favorable near term, although rising feed costs could eventually pressure producer margins and tighten supply later on.
Grains
Grains turned in another strong week, with corn and wheat both posting gains of more than 5%, and some contracts climbing by 10% or more. Wheat continued to lead the move higher as Black Sea trade disruptions persisted, while U.S. wheat export sales benefited, totaling nearly 800,000 metric tons over the past two weeks.
Outlook: Grain markets are likely to stay supported as long as Black Sea export issues remain unresolved, with wheat still the most sensitive market to geopolitical developments.
Seafood
Fresh yellowfin tuna was one of the biggest movers in the latest data, rising 5.3% month over month in June after declines in the prior two months. Import volumes, which had been running above normal in April and May, corrected in June and are expected to trend lower through November.
Outlook: Yellowfin tuna pricing may continue to edge higher into September, but the back half of the year should be much calmer than the first.
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Expert insights curated weekly
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