CommodityOne Weekly Report – Week of August 26th, 2025

Weekly harvests held flat at 171.8M head, 1.3% above last year. Whole birds softened slightly, while boneless/skinless breasts firmed to $2.02/lb, up 9% y/y. Tenderloins eased to $2.59/lb. Wings edged down to $1.72/lb, 29% below 2024 levels. Egg prices dropped another 9% w/w and sit 29% lower y/y.

Outlook: Harvest stability suggests limited near-term supply disruption, but tariff risks could curb exports and pressure domestic markets. 

Beef

The beef complex strengthened across primals: the choice cutout advanced 3% to $407.86/cwt, and tenderloins moved higher to $18.37/lb. Rib sections remained firm, while end cuts such as chucks and rounds also gained. Ground beef and trim trended higher, with 81% lean at $4.09/lb.

Outlook: Seasonal demand for Labor Day and early holiday positioning are providing counter-seasonal strength.

Pork

Cutout values declined 1% to $112.60/cwt. The loin complex was mixed, while butts (+4%) and ribs (+7%) benefitted from strong international demand. Bellies dropped 7% to $182.10/cwt, and hams fell 14% to $103.47/cwt.

Outlook: Lower hog values signal potential relief, but volatility in export-dependent primals (butts, ribs, hams) remains elevated. 

Seafood

Yellowfin tuna prices have dropped nearly 37% in the past three months, despite easing import volumes. Seasonal norms suggest summer stability, but the market remains weak.

Outlook: Supply tightening into November should stabilize pricing, though a rebound above $4/lb is unlikely until early 2026. 

Produce

Iceberg lettuce surged 10.5% w/w, approaching the seasonal rally expected in September–November. Tomatoes rebounded, particularly romas, correcting from earlier summer declines.

Outlook: Lettuce inflation is likely to extend into late fall, potentially reaching $40–$50/carton as in November 2024. 

Dairy

Butter fell $0.04 to $2.24/lb, while cheese markets held steady (blocks at $1.78/lb, barrels at $1.81/lb). Milk availability is constrained by summer heat, though retail and export demand for cheese remains steady.

Outlook: Butter weakness is expected to persist, but international competitiveness should keep cheese balanced. Supply chain teams should monitor cream availability and bottling demand as drivers of production schedules.

Grain

Corn and soybeans rallied after Pro Farmer’s crop tour revealed weaker yields in Iowa and Illinois versus USDA estimates. Wheat also gained slightly. Minnesota’s strong crop may offset some of the national shortfall.

Outlook: ArrowStream expects continued volatility driven by revised yield estimates and weather. Monitoring basis changes in key Midwest states will be essential for procurement timing and coverage strategies.