CommodityOne Weekly Report – Week of June 24th, 2025

Poultry

USDA young chicken harvest totaled 168.8M head, up 1.4% YoY. Boneless/skinless breasts declined $0.04 to $2.65/lb, while tenderloins rose $0.06 to $2.59/lb. Wing prices increased slightly to $1.21/lb but remain well below seasonal averages. Thigh meat pricing was flat week-over-week. Turkey breasts increased 6% w/w. Large shell egg prices were up 1% but down 20% month-over-month.

Outlook: Expect poultry markets to follow seasonal trends downward, though white meat demand should hold steady due to retail and foodservice value-driven purchasing. ArrowStream users should monitor potential upward pressure on tenderloins and B/S thighs.

Beef

Despite a 1.5% drop in live cattle futures, boxed beef cutouts rose sharply—Choice up 4% and Select up 3%. Ribeyes and tenderloins saw further strength, and top sirloins reached record highs. Ground beef and trimmings increased significantly, with 50% trim hitting a record $2.00/lb.

Outlook: Beef markets remain firm with limited harvest activity. Volatility in the grind segment is expected to persist through the July 4th period. ArrowStream users should watch for continued inflation in high-demand steak cuts and trimmings.

Pork

Pork cutout values rose 4% w/w and 19% m/m. Loins were mostly flat, while ribs, butts, bellies, and hams all saw notable increases. Bellies rose $0.08 to $2.25/lb, and pork butts gained strength on strong export demand.

Outlook: Pork values will likely remain elevated through the holiday. Monitor ribs, butts, and bellies for further volatility. Belly prices, in particular, may accelerate into early July.

Seafood

Fresh Atlantic salmon prices declined 6.9% m/m, moving closer to seasonal norms after months of inflation. The early price retreat took the market by surprise, but aligns with historical patterns.

Outlook: Salmon prices are likely to continue trending lower through the fall. ArrowStream users should consider timing forward buys to take advantage of declining costs while supply remains stable.

Produce

Avocado prices broke an 11-week downward streak with a slight increase, entering a historically volatile period. Roma tomato prices fell 1.5% w/w, showing signs of flattening after May’s sharper drops.

Outlook: Short-term volatility is likely for avocados heading into August. Tomatoes may experience corrective pricing in the near term but are not expected to see sustained increases until September.

Dairy

CME block and barrel cheese prices both dropped to $1.69/lb, while butter declined slightly to $2.53/lb. Cream supply was tighter in southern and central U.S. regions. Overall milk output remains adequate.

Outlook: Cheese and butter markets are softening, but regional variations in cream supply may affect production costs. Monitor butterfat availability and potential production slowdowns heading into Q3.

Grain

Wheat markets rallied modestly due to delayed U.S. winter wheat harvest and geopolitical tensions. Chicago wheat broke technical resistance, but Kansas City wheat failed to follow, signaling a lack of sustained momentum.

Outlook: Harvest conditions are improving, which could trigger a reversal in wheat prices. Expect downward corrections across wheat markets by mid-July barring any further geopolitical disruptions.