CommodityOne Weekly Report – Week of June 17th, 2025

Poultry

Harvest volumes remain consistent with last year, but pricing reflects segmentation. Boneless/skinless breasts dropped $0.09/lb to $2.69, while tenderloins rose modestly. Wing prices inched up but are still well below last year’s levels.

Outlook: Expect a typical seasonal decline in chicken prices overall. However, strong demand and limited harvests should keep white meat pricing supported through summer.

Beef

Both choice and select cutouts rose last week, driven by strength in ribs, end cuts, and ground beef. Beef trimmings also pushed higher, supported by tighter supplies and holiday demand.

Outlook: The cutout is expected to climb into July, with pricing pressure likely peaking after the Independence Day holiday. Plan for continued volatility and elevated costs in high-demand primals.

Pork

Pork pricing surged across bellies, hams, ribs, and butts. Despite softer export sales last week, retail and foodservice demand kept momentum strong. Belly prices alone jumped 9% week-over-week.

Outlook: Pork markets have likely hit seasonal lows. Expect continued upward pricing trends into July, particularly for bellies and rib items.

Seafood

Yellowfin tuna saw a rare and significant price collapse, down nearly 27% m/m to $3.85/lb—the second-lowest April average in 15 years.

Outlook: This unexpected drop is not sustainable. Expect a rebound in yellowfin pricing within the next 1–2 months as importers adjust to correct supply-demand balance.

Produce

Avocado prices held flat after weeks of decline, while romas continued a slow correction. Iceberg lettuce remains in the $10–$15 range, though crop disease could introduce price volatility.

Outlook: Avocados may dip further by month-end. Romas are nearing a rebound, and lettuce may experience short-term spikes due to supply challenges. Monitor regions for virus-related impacts.

Dairy

Cheese prices softened slightly while butter stayed flat. Production remains steady, and inventories are growing, although still below year-ago levels. Export demand is holding.

Outlook: Expect stable to slightly lower prices short term, but butter may strengthen if international demand remains robust. Monitor cheese block/barrel spread for margin impacts.

Grain

Soybean oil futures surged on Friday after the EPA’s new RVO announcement for 2026–2027 boosted biofuel demand projections. This reversed earlier week declines.

Outlook: With increased biomass diesel targets and a focus on domestic feedstocks, SBO prices are likely to stay elevated in the long term. Procurement teams should prepare for higher volatility.