CommodityOne Weekly Report – Week of July 29th, 2025

Poultry

Production rose 3.6% YoY, applying downward pressure on most chicken prices. Boneless breasts fell to $1.86/lb, now down 22% m/m. Thigh meat also declined, while wings increased for the eighth consecutive week, up 28% m/m. Turkey prices rose sharply, with boneless breasts up 5% and whole birds up 10%.

Outlook:
Expect further softening in white meat pricing through August due to seasonal trends and reduced export activity tied to tariffs. Wings may continue climbing, and turkey pricing could remain elevated through Q4.

Beef

Live cattle futures rose 1%, but wholesale beef softened. Choice and Select cutouts were down 1–2%. Loins showed the sharpest declines, with striploins dropping $1.78/lb. Ground beef and trim markets trended lower, with 81% ground down $0.24/lb.

Outlook:
The market has likely passed its seasonal highs. Expect modest declines in loins and grinds. Rib and end cuts may stay firm or trend higher in response to value shifts. Planning should reflect broader price softening across major cuts.

Pork

Pork cutout gained 1% due to strong belly and ham pricing. Loins, ribs, and butts all fell. Tenderloins dropped to $1.90/lb, and spareribs decreased to $1.71/lb. Bellies rose slightly, and ham demand is strengthening ahead of holiday buying.

Outlook:
Short-term softness expected in most primals, but hams will likely continue to rise through Q4. Bellies remain volatile. Operators should monitor export shifts and consider pre-positioning on hams.

Seafood

Yellowfin tuna pricing declined another 8.2% m/m in May, following a 26.7% drop in April. This puts tuna at its lowest level in 14+ years. Imports remain normal but are expected to taper through fall.

Outlook:
Prices are likely to rebound through Q3 and may rise above seasonal norms if import volumes tighten. This is a key category to monitor for Q4 inflation risk. Strategic sourcing opportunities exist now at favorable pricing.

Produce

Tomatoes and lettuce saw key movements. Roma pricing stabilized near $15/carton after a five-week rally. Iceberg dropped nearly 15% w/w. Avocados continued softening but may tighten in August. Potatoes are steadily increasing pre-harvest.

Outlook:
Expect upward pressure in Q4 due to seasonal transitions and the potential end of U.S.-Mexico tomato trade agreements. Monitor tariff developments closely. Pricing volatility likely through November across key produce SKUs.

Dairy

Cheese prices held steady, with blocks and barrels up $0.01/lb. Butter declined $0.11/lb but remains elevated relative to five-year trends. Export demand for cheese and butter remains strong due to U.S. price competitiveness.

Outlook:
Stable cheese markets expected short term. Butter may rebound modestly entering Q4 holiday season. Operators should track forward pricing opportunities to protect margins heading into peak demand months.

Grain

Corn prices fell 2.1% w/w despite hot weather, as crop ratings remain historically strong. Soybean oil saw a slight uptick, but overall grain markets were soft. Export sales were strong but didn’t impact futures significantly.

Outlook:
Grain pricing is expected to stay suppressed unless crop ratings begin to deteriorate. Watch USDA condition reports closely. Leverage current price environment to manage ingredient costs tied to corn and soybean derivatives.