CommodityOne Weekly Report – Week of July 22nd, 2025

Poultry

USDA young chicken harvest was flat year-over-year, but pricing across most parts continued to decline. Boneless/skinless breasts dropped to $1.89/lb and are now down 28% m/m, while wings climbed for the seventh week to $1.54/lb. Egg prices rose 4% w/w, and B/S thigh meat was down $0.10.

Outlook: Poultry markets are in their typical seasonal dip, but tariff uncertainty could weigh on exports. Expect continued softness through late summer before promotions drive volume in the fall. Contract strategies should account for short-term volatility in wings and relative stability in white meat.

Beef

Live cattle futures climbed 2% to $223.67/cwt, but boxed beef values trended lower. Ribeye subprimals were a bright spot, while loins, rounds, and chucks declined across both choice and select grades. Trim was mixed with 50% lean down and 90% lean slightly up.

Outlook: Packers are expected to reduce harvests to offset margin compression, which could affect spot availability. With the cutout trending lower, plan for softer beef pricing ahead, and evaluate contract coverage for rib and loin components.

Pork

The pork cutout rose 2% despite weaker futures and lean hog prices. Hams and bellies supported the increase, while pork butts and ribs declined. Trim values continue to climb, and pork butt exports dropped significantly.

Outlook: Pricing pressure is building across a mixed market. Hams may firm up ahead of holiday demand, while other categories could present short-term savings opportunities. Export volatility and tariff risk remain critical variables for forecasting.

Seafood

Cod fell 10.7% m/m, continuing a broader correction after a pricing surge in early 2025. Tilapia is also trending lower, though nearing seasonal norms. Import volumes declined, adding complexity to supply planning.

Outlook: The correction in whitefish proteins offers near-term purchasing opportunities. Consider renegotiating frozen seafood contracts or reallocating volume to optimize cost and maintain product availability through Q4.

Produce

Avocados hit a new low at $45/carton, but seasonal supply risk remains. Iceberg lettuce rose 7% w/w, potatoes continued higher, and romas saw their fourth straight weekly increase.

Outlook: Most categories are following seasonal expectations, but late summer volatility is possible—especially for avocados. Buyers should evaluate contract opportunities for fall transitions and be cautious of late-season supply shifts in leafy greens and tomatoes.

Dairy

Butter and cheese prices softened slightly last week. Tightening milk and cream supply—especially in heat-impacted Central regions—is driving some processors to the spot market, though contract volumes are mostly intact.

Outlook: While national availability remains steady, regional sourcing may be affected by summer heat. Watch for potential spot market premiums in affected areas and maintain close visibility on cheese input costs.

Grain

Soybeans rallied nearly 3% last week after strong June crush data and biofuel-related optimism, despite early-week bearish export and crop reports. Other grain markets were largely steady.

Outlook: Expect ongoing volatility in the soybean complex as market sentiment shifts on energy policy developments. Procurement teams should monitor crush margins and SBO movements closely when managing soy-based input exposure.