CommodityOne Weekly Report – Week of July 1st, 2025

Poultry

Weekly slaughter ran 3.6 % above last year, leaving whole birds unchanged while boneless/skinless breasts corrected to $2.39/lb (-14 % m/m) and wings ticked up to $1.26/lb—still 50 % below 2024. Dark-meat prices eased, and the egg index nudged 1 % higher. Supply remains balanced, but capacity constraints continue to cap any meaningful surplus.

Outlook: Expect the traditional midsummer slide to extend into August; however, affordability keeps white meat firmly bid in both retail and QSR channels. Consider short-term contracts on breasts and float wings to capitalize on historically low costs.

Beef

Live cattle futures lost 1.5 %, yet the Choice boxed cutout advanced to $395/cwt on record trim values (50 % trim $2.34/lb). Rib and loin pricing softened modestly, but packers are signaling slower kills to protect margins. End cuts posted a mixed performance, offering only spot relief for grind-heavy programs.

Outlook: Pricing should crest in the next 7–10 days before the usual mid-July pause. Secure lean trim and ground-beef coverage now; delay large rib/loin commitments until the peak confirms, then layer Q3 positions on any pullback.

Pork

The pork cutout added 1 % last week and 14 % for June, driven by bellies (+4 %) and tenderloins, while trim values retreated and export demand for butts softened. Cash and futures are beginning to diverge—early evidence of rally fatigue.

Outlook: A measured retreat is likely across most primals in July, but tariff policy once the 90-day pause expires could reignite volatility. Hedge bacon through late summer; keep loins and butts on formula pricing to capture downside.

Seafood

Frozen cod filets climbed another 6 % m/m to a record $4.89/lb (+27 % y/y), marking five straight monthly gains as April import volumes hit seasonal lows.

Outlook: Historical patterns suggest April is the annual ceiling; prices should taper as arrivals rebuild through Q3. Defer large replenishment buys and diversify white-fish specs (pollock, hake) to limit COGS exposure.

Produce

Avocados fell 18 % w/w to a new YTD low, slipping under 2024 levels for the first time in 11 months. Iceberg lettuce spiked 35 % yet remains seasonally typical; Idaho russets have kicked off their pre-harvest rally. Virus chatter in Western lettuce fields bears monitoring but hasn’t tightened supply.

Outlook: Soft avocado pricing should persist through August—evaluate menu promotions. Lettuce is likely range-bound until a September lift, and potatoes could climb another $1–2/carton by late July. Stagger contracts to balance savings on avocados against rising spud costs.

Dairy

Butter inched to $2.54/lb on firm export pull despite a sharp drop in U.S. retail promos; cream is tight in parts of the West and Central regions. Cheese blocks slipped to $1.61/lb as retail demand cooled, though milk flows remain sufficient.

Outlook: Global demand will keep butter supported—consider Q3 cover for bakery and sauce lines. Cheese appears range-bound until back-to-school and football demand surface; maintain short, flexible contracts or index-based deals.

Grain

Winter wheat gave back its Middle-East-driven premium, and soybean oil fell with crude despite bullish biofuel policy signals. Markets await acreage and stocks data that could reset price decks.

Outlook: Near-term volatility is high; cost-plus or basis contracts on flour and fryer oil are prudent until USDA data is digested. Longer-term soy-oil bias remains upward—evaluate hedge strategies for Q4.