Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
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Poultry
Boneless, skinless breast prices plunged another 30% month-over-month, now at $1.95/lb, while wings edged up to $1.47/lb but remain 44% below last year. Thigh meat slid modestly, though boneless thigh meat stays elevated (+18% y/y). Turkey breasts and whole birds rose 12% and 6% respectively, while egg prices remained stable. This volatility emphasizes the need for agile hedging as white meat retains strong demand.
Outlook: Expect chicken prices to dip further seasonally; higher harvest volumes and export tariffs may accelerate declines. Steady demand for white meat—given its affordability—should underpin volume stability.
Beef
Choice cutouts dipped to $384.65/cwt, select at $370.86/cwt. Notable declines were seen in ribs and striploins, though tenderloins and shortloins held firm. Ground beef softened, while 50% trim hit record highs. These mixed trends reflect shifting channel demand and could affect margin modeling.
Outlook: Beef prices are likely to soften as packers adjust harvest levels, creating buying windows ahead of broader price corrections.
Pork
After a sharp prior-week decline, the cutout recovered by 3% to $114.15/cwt. Bellies and hams strengthened, while butts and ribs lagged, and butt export sales weakened. Supportive belly and trim prices are helping offset weakness elsewhere in the primal mix.
Outlook: Pork prices should moderate due to tariff uncertainty and sluggish global demand, though trim/secondary cuts may see spot opportunities.
Seafood
Seafood prices declined across the board in May, with tilapia off ~12% m/m—now below expected seasonal norms. Lower import volumes suggest the downward pressure may persist through the summer.
Outlook: Stabilizing import volumes should cap the downside—ideal timing for seafood-focused promotions or flex pricing strategies.
Produce
Iceberg lettuce has spiked to nearly 3× mid‑June levels, and Idaho potato costs are up ~40% ahead of harvest. These atypical price surges could skew produce mix budgets if unaddressed.
Outlook: Expect continued volatility through harvest season; operators should leverage seasonal alternatives and cross-utilization where possible.
Dairy
Butter came off slightly at $2.59/lb, blocks stayed flat, and barrels edged lower. With cream tight in some areas due to summer heat, manufacturers are tapping the spot market to meet supply needs. Real-time monitoring of cream availability is becoming increasingly important.
Outlook: Dairy markets remain stable but sensitive to weather-related supply shifts—monitor spot cream pricing closely to manage cost exposure.
Grain
Corn fell back sharply despite record export demand, pressured by abundant U.S. and Brazilian production. Export inspections hit seasonal highs (1.68 MMT, week ending July 3), yet trade deal rumors failed to sustain prices. These dynamics reinforce the value of proactive grain contracting.
Outlook: Grain prices are expected to remain subdued; consider locking in Q3 pricing where beneficial.
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