Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
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Poultry
Chicken harvests were down 10.7% w/w and 9% y/y, leading to higher sales for chicken breasts and tenderloins, though breast purchases dropped 40,000 lbs due to the reduced harvest. Prices for most chicken parts remained stable or slightly higher, while large eggshell prices rose 2.5% w/w and 35% over the past month, reflecting ongoing demand for cost-effective protein sources.
Beef
Beef markets saw mixed movements, with ground beef prices up 1% w/w and 31% this month. The choice cutout dropped 1% to $331/cwt, while end cuts and ribs saw slight declines. Lean trim prices continued to rise, with 90% lean trim up 4% to $3.68/lb, driven by strong demand for value cuts.
Pork
Pork saw mixed trends, with ribs and bellies leading price increases, while hams and pork butts declined. The belly primal rose 7% to $138.60/cwt, driven by strong demand, while boneless pork butt prices dipped 3% w/w. Operators should leverage pricing opportunities to manage fluctuating pork costs.
Seafood
Atlantic salmon prices hit a four-month high of $6.06/lb, up 10% y/y. Prices are expected to remain elevated through March due to strong demand and limited corrective weakness in the market. Operators should plan accordingly to manage higher seafood costs.
Produce
Avocado prices climbed another 10% w/w, driven by high demand ahead of the Super Bowl, though increased volumes may stabilize the market after February. Roma tomatoes continued their seasonal price drop but are expected to level out within the next two weeks.
Dairy
Dairy markets softened last week, with cheese and butter prices declining slightly. CME blocks and barrels fell $0.07 to $1.82/lb, while butter demand remained mixed amid ample cream supplies. Retail promotions increased, but retail prices stayed lower than last year, creating a favorable market for operators.
Grain
Soybean meal prices surged 5% last week, fueled by dry weather in Argentina’s key growing regions. While some rain is forecasted, the ongoing drought is keeping the global market on edge. U.S. soybean meal exports are already at record highs for the 2024/25 marketing year.
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